# Best of cryptohayes.substack.com on Kiwi News

Page: https://news.kiwistand.com/source/cryptohayes.substack.com

48 stories from cryptohayes.substack.com have been shared on Kiwi News since 12 September 2023, with 88 upvotes and 17 comments in total. The latest was shared on 20 August 2026. They are listed below, most upvoted first.

Summaries are AI summaries of the linked article.

## 1. Assume The Position

- Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/Assume-The-Position?index=0x68514518d82e13921e55543dc180455649135d7a8774bef7158b10b5e23e78e8a7d141ac
- Source: https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/assume-the-position?r=3ptcv
- Shared 17 June 2025, 8 upvotes, 2 comments

The author argues that stablecoin issuers can only succeed if they can distribute their product at scale through a crypto exchange, a Web2 social media giant, or a legacy bank, and that new entrants will struggle to repeat Tether's rise. The essay traces Tether's growth from its 2015 use on Bitfinex, when USDT was used to move dollars between exchanges, through Greater China's banking constraints and the 2017 ICO boom. It also predicts that Circle, which the author calls grossly overvalued after its IPO, will keep rising before a stablecoin issuer's public listing triggers a bubble's collapse.

## 2. PvP

- Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/PvP?index=0x670544859d0c2e66a7ea7597c060281473bb305c28ee0adcac75b7abf94adbfcd1b75a58
- Source: https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/pvp
- Shared 8 October 2024, 5 upvotes, 1 comment

The article argues that the "PvP" (player vs. player) dynamic in the current crypto cycle is driven by venture capital firms and centralized exchanges, not retail buyers, and that tokens launched in 2024 have generally fallen after listing. Using a sample of 103 projects listed in 2024 across major exchanges, it reports that the median token was up 31% over the last private round's fully diluted valuation, and that tokens bought at or around listing underperformed Bitcoin, Ether and Solana. It cites Binance listing fees of up to 8% of total token supply, deposits of up to $5,000,000 in BNB, and most other exchanges charging $250,000 to $500,000 in stablecoins. The article uses Auki Labs, a Maelstrom portfolio project that listed first on a DEX, as an example of an alternative launch.

## 3. Btc vs FED - a fresh review by Arthur Hayes

- Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/Btc-vs-FED-a-fresh-review-by-Arthur-Hayes?index=0x650c7d0ad6867c277d4bba1bf80069064357111abeb13f44e1e71499d1c23e474a70586f
- Source: https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/are-we-there-yet
- Shared 21 September 2023, 5 upvotes, 0 comments

Arthur Hayes argues that the Fed's continued rate hikes are keeping real yields negative, which sustains a government-funded financial repression model that he says could still support Bitcoin. He points to a forecast that third-quarter 2023 nominal GDP growth of 9.4% (5.7% real growth plus a 3.7% deflator) would leave the 2-year Treasury yield of 5% at a real yield of -4.4%. He also says that falling capital gains tax receipts after 2021, when realized gains reached 8.7% of GDP according to the US Congressional Budget Office, have weakened government revenue.

## 4. KISS of Death

- Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/KISS-of-Death?index=0x67c638f6708be9929faa3b5fa5b21212f58900807fb1201bcc29a3a1c1df384221415207
- Source: https://open.substack.com/pub/cryptohayes/p/kiss-of-death?r=3ptcv
- Shared 3 March 2025, 4 upvotes, 0 comments

The author argues that Trump's administration is financing its America First policies with debt and money printing, and that a recession engineered through spending cuts would push the Federal Reserve under Jerome Powell to cut rates and print money. The article says Scott Bessent, as Treasury Secretary, wants to lengthen the average maturity of US debt, which it describes as a soft default through lower present value. It cites DOGE, led by Elon Musk, as the central effort to shrink government spending quickly, and says the SSA's payments to deceased or unverified individuals could be a target.

## 5. The BBC

- Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/The-BBC?index=0x67eb9ad62e9ea7490028a00990e9d28a2480374e5e324bfdd8f9186a748c5b18c61bfd8a
- Source: https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/the-bbc?r=3ptcv
- Shared 1 April 2025, 3 upvotes, 6 comments

The author argues that the Federal Reserve, under Chair Jerome Powell, will resume quantitative easing focused on US Treasury bonds by this summer, because President Trump's trade and fiscal goals require the Fed and US commercial banks to print money and buy Treasuries. The essay opens with a satirical dialogue in which Powell describes being pressured by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent after a March meeting. The argument points to the US current account deficit, which the essay ties to China's export growth after its 2001 World Trade Organization entry, and to foreign buying of Treasury debt that has funded it.

## 6. Points Guard

- Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/Points-Guard?index=0x65d32d1cb2fcaa489189a4b5a4e1b63029f6e854584d2d47bc0063fec5b9cb0e329ae4c4
- Source: https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/points-guard
- Shared 19 February 2024, 3 upvotes, 2 comments

The author argues that points programs are a natural next step in crypto's history of engaging users, following Bitcoin mining, ICOs and yield farming. The essay contrasts Web 2 startups, where VC funding subsidized users and retail investors were largely excluded from early ownership, with Web 3 projects, where participants can earn ownership through activity. It describes ICOs as rewarding capital rather than usage, and yield farming as rewarding activity that often lost money, with token emissions growing faster than demand for many projects.

## 7. Zero Knowledge Proof

- Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/Zero-Knowledge-Proof?index=0x67adbf519f54d62c844828d80e6b18e9faf0a888b4eaff451136306a297f387fdae84d8b
- Source: https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/zero-knowledge-proof?r=3ptcv
- Shared 13 February 2025, 3 upvotes, 1 comment

The author argues that political memecoins, such as $TRUMP, can serve as a real-time, global, hard-to-ban popularity measure for politicians and can also expand reach for campaigns and bring billions of people into Web3. The article says Trump launched his own memecoin, and it contends that politicians' public opinion is distorted by people who give pollsters false answers. It cites Polymarket's 2024 Trump vs Harris prediction market as an example of a market revealing opinion, and it says France banned Polymarket in a non-election year.

## 8. Suavemente

- Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/Suavemente?index=0x695d63c9efff0607d45819e71ca683efe4f57c486396e426e7e1f8cb850663051cd3484c
- Source: https://open.substack.com/pub/cryptohayes/p/suavemente?r=3ptcv
- Shared 6 January 2026, 3 upvotes, 0 comments

The author, writing under the title "Suavemente," argues that the US action in Venezuela matters for Bitcoin mainly through its effect on US money printing, judged by whether oil prices rise or fall alongside nominal GDP. The argument rests on a claim that Trump needs a hot economy without rising gasoline prices to win the 2026 and 2028 elections, and that oil prices above roughly 10-year yields near 5% would force politicians to restrain credit creation. The piece cites the MOVE Index spiking to an intraday high of 172 during the April 2025 tariff episode as an example of how volatility can change policy, and it concludes that falling oil and expanding credit favor Bitcoin.

## 9. Left Curve

- Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/Left-Curve?index=0x66283fd3c82b17f0941b60f2637c600d9f7fa506f6c630d85c7317d7ae40c2b5e7f823f3
- Source: https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/left-curve
- Shared 23 April 2024, 3 upvotes, 0 comments

Investors who sell crypto for fiat they do not need for living expenses are making a mistake, and the bull market will continue. The argument holds that the US, China, the EU and Japan are debasing their currencies, and that spot Bitcoin ETFs let traditional finance profit from that narrative. Negative real yields, where the 10-year government bond yield falls below nominal GDP growth, are said to have powered Bitcoin's rise from zero in 2009 to $70,000 in 2024. It predicts Bitcoin could reach $1,000,000 and cites the 2024 US election as a reason governments will spend more.

## 10. Dust On Crust Part Deux

- Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/Dust-On-Crust-Part-Deux?index=0x65eaca834c825fc323d4802192abb520074620757b8ab7effc500813084ae2827424da35
- Source: https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/dust-on-crust-part-deux
- Shared 8 March 2024, 2 upvotes, 2 comments

## 11. Reality Test

- Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/Reality-Test?index=0x6a27e2590a8a6177c9ff7cc838f8be35b6035e271f192b4298ae02da94a9e01b7b0babe0
- Source: https://open.substack.com/pub/cryptohayes/p/reality-test?r=3ptcv
- Shared 9 June 2026, 2 upvotes, 0 comments

Trump may shift to anti-AI rhetoric before November to win House seats, and the resulting market reaction could pop the AI stock bubble. Oil prices, driven largely by the Strait of Hormuz closure, shape Trump's and the IRGC's incentives to deal, and high energy and food inflation threaten Republican support among undecided voters. Redistricting could cut the 19-seat gap that Polymarket odds imply to 11, leaving 35 races that could go either way. Tesla shares fell 18% intraday during an earlier feud in which Trump threatened government contracts tied to Musk's businesses.

## 12. This Is Fine

- Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/This-Is-Fine?index=0x6995b678db69048cd81be81f29fd2dec1b6ad789f4af6c4b55a9c3cdc8f24e94397e5d51
- Source: https://open.substack.com/pub/cryptohayes/p/this-is-fine?r=3ptcv
- Shared 18 February 2026, 2 upvotes, 0 comments

The author argues that Bitcoin's recent divergence from the Nasdaq 100 signals an approaching credit destruction event, driven by white-collar job losses from AI adoption. The article models that a 20% loss of US knowledge workers could push banks to write down about 13% of their equity, using $330bn of consumer credit losses and $227bn of mortgage losses. It compares this to the 2008 GFC, which it calls roughly twice as deadly, and expects renewed Fed money printing in 2026 to lift Bitcoin, which it says fell from $126,000 to $60,000.

## 13. The Cure

- Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/The-Cure?index=0x674eb5c991483efc15e010721e8eb7c8c7d0f330dac66dc0c5486402f7b63db1204703a4
- Source: https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/the-cure?isFreemail=true&post_id=152468139&publication_id=1616843&r=3rq3o&triedRedirect=true
- Shared 3 December 2024, 2 upvotes, 0 comments

The author argues that crypto's capital formation has drifted from its original purpose of making retail users rich, and that VC-backed tokens, with high fully diluted valuations and low float, have performed poorly. The article says VC-backed tokens are chosen based on founders' pedigree and location rather than crypto expertise, while memecoins offer retail buyers an egalitarian launch with the full supply released at once. It cites a claim that 2024 vintage tokens underperformed the majors (Bitcoin, Ether, and/or Sol) by about 50% on a median basis, citing the author's earlier article "PvP".

## 14. Boom Times... Delayed

- Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/Boom-Times-Delayed?index=0x66d83dbc38e6ce7164a7dcabcca26570f3a264b6146b12772c9d1d2a3282e7373297a1f5
- Source: https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/boom-times-delayed
- Shared 4 September 2024, 2 upvotes, 0 comments

The central claim is that rising balances in the Federal Reserve's Reverse Repo Program (RRP) after Powell's Jackson Hole speech are draining dollar liquidity and weighing on Bitcoin, which gave back about 10% of its dollar price over the last week. RRP balances rose by roughly $120bn as money market funds chased the facility's 5.3% yield ahead of an expected September rate cut, and the text says a rising RRP sterilizes money that cannot be re-leveraged. The argument predicts that a 2024 rate cut would push 10-year Treasury yields toward 5%, a level at which Yellen injected liquidity last year, and that this would halt the stock rally and raise mortgage rates.

## 15. Zoom Out

- Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/Zoom-Out?index=0x668696bb920b80bd8ce4a1d83ee7b437e51d3d16f84ee5c6e0bdb70303294632071bf63b
- Source: https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/zoom-out
- Shared 4 July 2024, 2 upvotes, 0 comments

The author argues that the world is at a turning point between geopolitical and monetary arrangements, and that the current period is a Local, inflationary cycle in which savers face financial repression and gold and Bitcoin are the assets to hold. Using a historical framework, the author contrasts the 1933 to 1980 Local cycle, when gold ownership was banned, with the 1980 to 2008 Global cycle, when stocks outperformed gold. The author states that since 2008, Pax Americana has again defaulted and devalued the dollar through quantitative easing amid proxy wars, and that Bitcoin's blockchain ledger makes it a stateless alternative to gold.

## 16. Shikata Ga Nai 

- Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/Shikata-Ga-Nai?index=0x667557387f218dbe8f7c5365cb3f0a70b4ea5b3d501df6efd74df73908eaadb12b17fb0c
- Source: https://open.substack.com/pub/cryptohayes/p/shikata-ga-nai?r=3ptcv
- Shared 21 June 2024, 2 upvotes, 0 comments

Norinchukin Bank, Japan's fifth-largest bank by deposits, is reported to be selling $63 billion of foreign bonds, mostly US Treasuries, after rising US and European interest rates cut the value of its high-priced bonds and widened its paper losses. The author argues that the hedging cost of holding USTs turned sharply negative as the Fed's policy rate rose above the BOJ's near -0.1%, so that FX-hedged USTs yielded less than JGBs and other banks face the same trade. The author further claims the Bank of Japan could absorb these bonds through the Fed's FIMA repo facility, which would let the BOJ hold USTs while dollars are created to fund the purchases.

## 17. The Easy Button

- Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/The-Easy-Button?index=0x664c3ea34f8685d309abbf6e39b20cce197e9c92ecdd5a110c2f7fa80f9a7c2cc138f819
- Source: https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/the-easy-button
- Shared 21 May 2024, 2 upvotes, 0 comments

The author argues that the global elites' default policy is the "easy button" of delaying hard choices, and uses Japan and China to illustrate this. Russell Napier's May 12 Solid Ground newsletter is cited as describing a Fed-Treasury dollar-yen swap option that would let the Bank of Japan avoid raising rates by having the Ministry of Finance sell US Treasuries to buy yen. The author contends that a weakening yen pressures China's exports, which could push China to devalue the yuan, and that Biden would be unlikely to allow such a devaluation before the election. The article also outlines a hypothetical Chinese gold-backed threat, with China holding an estimated 31,000 tonnes of gold worth roughly $2.34 trillion.

## 18. Mayday

- Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/Mayday?index=0x66341c0f693b708525d05f80a03d6059b5c73f4a62e86b79e40cbcf220d1c3723b82c7c3
- Source: https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/mayday
- Shared 2 May 2024, 2 upvotes, 0 comments

The author argues that recent Fed and US Treasury actions amount to stealth money printing that will add dollar liquidity and support crypto prices. He cites the Fed's reduction of quantitative tightening from $95 billion to $60 billion per month, which he says adds about $35 billion in monthly dollar liquidity. He also points to the FDIC's $667 million cost for Republic First's resolution and the $6.7 trillion in uninsured deposits reported by the St. Louis Fed, which he says effectively guarantees all US bank deposits. He predicts Bitcoin will rally above $60,000 and trade between $60,000 and $70,000 until August.

## 19. Heatwave (Arthur Hayes)

- Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/Heatwave-Arthur-Hayes?index=0x661478a7a15d2c3362e508432ed80c2d1f195b58daf0cc059991ec7109cacb20504d1790
- Source: https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/heatwave
- Shared 8 April 2024, 2 upvotes, 0 comments

Arthur Hayes argues that April 2024 will bring extreme weakness to risky asset markets, and that the Federal Reserve and US Treasury are quietly expanding dollar liquidity through the discount window and bank capital rules. He says the BTFP's expiry on March 12th did not trigger a crypto sell-off, as he had predicted, and that the discount window only accepts Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. Hayes states that the Fed's new collateral rules leave insolvent banks able to avoid failure, and he estimates the insolvent US banking system's Treasury and MBS holdings at $4 trillion. He also says the ISDA has asked for a Treasury exemption from the supplemental leverage ratio, and he expects that proposal to be accepted.

## 20. Chief Story Officer

- Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/Chief-Story-Officer?index=0x65d78e5fcecb51630fde9e36ae5e9c543ea6b158d2f60bedcadbe3423e63b501851bf319
- Source: https://open.substack.com/pub/cryptohayes/p/chief-story-officer?r=3ptcv
- Shared 22 February 2024, 2 upvotes, 0 comments

The author argues that investment decisions rest on perceived probabilities shaped by a "narrative" of facts and crowd opinion, not on the underlying technology. Using skiing avalanche risk and elevator safety as examples, the piece claims that people trust experts and the crowd when they cannot verify facts themselves. Applied to crypto, the author states that the story matters more than the tech and that tokens gain value as a story spreads, with BitPerp, a perpetual swap DEX advised by Arthur Hayes, used as an example. The author writes as Chief Investment Officer at Maelstrom and says the firm's essays will focus on specific tokens it holds.

## 21. Expression

- Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/Expression?index=0x6586cc962212b492009362638308d5b0e543069ef4f7124140d9339d52756e08c96f444a
- Source: https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/expression?r=3ptcv
- Shared 23 December 2023, 2 upvotes, 0 comments

The author argues that Bitcoin and crypto are the best expression of a "fiat debasement" trade, and that the Fed's recent shift toward rate cuts reflects political pressure ahead of the November 2024 election. In an illustrative chart indexed to 1 January 2020 after deflating by the Fed's balance sheet, Bitcoin is up 228%, ahead of gold, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100. The piece says Powell's December FOMC remarks signaled rate cuts, which it contrasts with his earlier comments at Spelman College two weeks prior. It also argues that "permissioned decentralised" crypto projects are a value trap built for institutional investors.

## 22. The Book of Genesis

- Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/The-Book-of-Genesis?index=0x6a86c249e73521db47d7136ebd2547835718e3c38b778e5e1482f14b42365c273ce7b93c
- Source: https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/the-book-of-genesis
- Shared 20 August 2026, 1 upvote, 1 comment

Arthur Hayes presents the Flop Network, a proposed decentralized network where computers process AI inference requests priced in FLOPs and paid in its native token, $FLOP, as a way to give AI agents a unit of value tied to compute. The essay says miners would earn $FLOP through a block reward and inference fees, using proof of useful inference (PoUI). It also says the team was self-funded to avoid a pre-sale, and that a testnet airdrop will receive roughly 20% of the token supply after ten years.

## 23. The Genie

- Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/The-Genie?index=0x67a47af1ed21b8fbf3b77d367e3bee2a3e9a1100c49d9963accfb748868760c9a3a039dc
- Source: https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/the-genie
- Shared 6 February 2025, 1 upvote, 1 comment

The author argues that a US Bitcoin Strategic Reserve and a broad crypto regulatory bill would be net negatives for the industry, because a government stockpile could be sold for political reasons and rules favoring large centralized firms would entrench incumbents. The essay names Senator Lummis as suggesting the government buy one million Bitcoin. It argues that the dollar system's next reserve asset must be neutral, since China has stopped accumulating US treasuries, with Chinese treasury holdings falling by $14 billion over the last twelve months of public data.

## 24. Points Guard

- Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/Points-Guard?index=0x65c567d7400420d31c08a7c32d23a867cbb203a6ffafa8a95eb12596455218f75bdaba74
- Source: https://open.substack.com/pub/cryptohayes/p/points-guard?r=3ptcv
- Shared 8 February 2024, 1 upvote, 1 comment

The author argues that points programs are a natural next step in how crypto projects engage users, following Bitcoin mining, ICOs and yield farming, which tied ownership to participation. The essay contrasts Web 2 startups, where VC funding subsidised users and retail investors were largely barred from early stakes, with Web 3 models where users can earn ownership. It notes that ICOs rewarded money invested rather than protocol usage, and that yield farming in DeFi summer from mid-2020 paid users in governance tokens, with many farmers losing money on the way. The author says points are expected to drive adoption for Maelstrom portfolio companies that launch tokens in 2024.

## 25. No Trade Zone

- Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/No-Trade-Zone?index=0x69e09b74a0f7fe1a75c10fcd1622b103876c036ad63fa10811a6ae48e5d42559aece6d58
- Source: https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/no-trade-zone
- Shared 16 April 2026, 1 upvote, 0 comments

The author, writing under the title "No Trade Zone," says Maelstrom's trading was quiet in the first quarter because of two developments: the spread of agentic AI, which they argue will destroy knowledge-worker careers and trigger a deflationary financial collapse, and a US-Israeli war against Iran that began about seven weeks before the piece was written. The author sets out three scenarios: a return to normal, an Iranian toll system in the Strait of Hormuz, and a US military campaign to reopen the strait. For the toll scenario, the author argues that nations would need yuan, leading them to sell dollar assets and buy gold, and that this would end the petrodollar's dominance.

## 26. Woomph

- Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/Woomph?index=0x697a0f1c565f3e3a33f1724e4cbcd45ff4297916c8250a7bb2cfb0144348966d6b157286
- Source: https://open.substack.com/pub/cryptohayes/p/woomph?r=3ptcv&shareImageVariant=overlay
- Shared 28 January 2026, 1 upvote, 0 comments

The author argues that a sudden yen weakening and a collapse in Japanese government bond (JGB) prices, which occurred together in January 2026, will prompt the Federal Reserve to intervene and expand its balance sheet. The essay describes the mechanics the author expects: the New York Fed would create dollar reserves, sell dollars for yen in the FX market, and buy JGBs for its SOMA, lowering Japanese yields. The author links this to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's use of the Exchange Stabilization Fund and expects the policy to strengthen the yen, euro and yuan while boosting Bitcoin. The author presents this as a theory that current Fed balance sheet data does not yet confirm.

## 27. Four, Seven

- Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/Four-Seven?index=0x68d9100077d22428801db29a88a9b065dd4fb5ce50046b7b8c069fe3a4e997b38d5d781c
- Source: https://open.substack.com/pub/cryptohayes/p/four-seven
- Shared 28 September 2025, 1 upvote, 0 comments

Bessent's plan to re-industrialize America could recreate the 1942–1951 yield curve control, when the Fed capped T-bill yields at 0.675% and 10- to 25-year bonds at 2.5%, and current Fed tools could achieve this. A steeper curve would let regional banks profitably lend to firms with fewer than 500 FTEs, which account for roughly 46% of employment. Achieving this would require Trump to win four of the seven Board of Governors seats and then a FOMC majority before the November 2026 midterms.

## 28. Time Signature

- Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/Time-Signature?index=0x688b1b1d69cfb6500a66c8c28c4b1e1476efc355ee5a9a34e0487baeeff8456c75dcf049
- Source: https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/time-signature
- Shared 31 July 2025, 1 upvote, 0 comments

The author argues that the most important variable for profitable investing is how the supply of fiat money changes, and that US wartime industrial policy is expanding dollar credit in ways that will push up Bitcoin's price. The article uses the MP Materials deal as its main example: the US Defense Department becomes the company's biggest shareholder and guarantees a rare earths price twice the current Chinese market price, and JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs back a $1 billion loan to build the 10X facility. The author also claims that stablecoin issuers, which hold mostly US Treasury bills, will help finance the growing federal deficit.

## 29. Fatty Fatty Boom Boom

- Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/Fatty-Fatty-Boom-Boom?index=0x682565614c4efcd863e1867fb9f83c69a06efbb3b7b58295dba3a55026863e1493027e9f
- Source: https://open.substack.com/pub/cryptohayes/p/fatty-fatty-boom-boom
- Shared 15 May 2025, 1 upvote, 0 comments

America's trade and capital imbalances, likened here to obesity, are attributed to decades of printed money rather than tariff rates, and capital controls that tax foreign buyers of US assets are presented as the politically easier fix. The text says the Trump administration has backed away from maximalist tariffs, cutting America-China tariffs to roughly 10% on both sides for 90 days. It predicts that foreign capital will flee US stocks, bonds and real estate, weakening the dollar, and that Bitcoin will be the best-performing asset during this period.

## 30. Ski Cut

- Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/Ski-Cut?index=0x6808891d2deb89a2834855e5868e1a058d7ad3414a13d99f2df2c89d7cab587851bb7899
- Source: https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/ski-cut?r=3ptcv
- Shared 23 April 2025, 1 upvote, 0 comments

The author argues that Trump's April 2 "Liberation Day" tariffs acted as a ski cut that triggered a market avalanche, and that this sequence shows policymakers will act to calm markets. The article says the tariff rates were worse than the worst-case estimates of mainstream economists and analysts, and the MOVE Index for bond market volatility rose to almost an all-time intraday high of 172. Within a week Trump paused implementation for every nation except China for 90 days, and the Fed's Susan Collins and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent then signaled support. The author also expects Bitcoin to rally on future tariff escalation and calls the local bottom at $74,500.

## 31. The Ugly

- Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/The-Ugly?index=0x6798b236091f41babdbac88ce2929846675a0cc297f900746fcb73af7ff5667abc5da853
- Source: https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/the-ugly?r=3ptcv
- Shared 28 January 2025, 1 upvote, 0 comments

The essay argues that the author's outlook on crypto has turned bearish after a period of bullishness, and that a pullback in Bitcoin toward $70,000 to $75,000 is more likely than continued gains before a rise to $250,000 by year end. The author's reasoning rests on US Treasury market stress: a 10-year yield rising to between 5% and 6% could trigger a mini-financial crisis. The essay says relative value hedge funds are the marginal buyers of treasuries, and that bank balance sheet limits under Basel III and margin requirements could cut their buying. It suggests the Fed could suspend the supplemental leverage ratio and resume quantitative easing, though the essay argues the Fed's political will is the missing piece.

## 32. Sasa

- Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/Sasa?index=0x677d0c22bfe74f3204a736c3103e59d4af763be78795fefef4f9fcd30778788f8516a6cb
- Source: https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/sasa?r=3ptcv
- Shared 7 January 2025, 1 upvote, 0 comments

Dollar liquidity from the Fed and US Treasury could offset disappointment over the pace of Trump's pro-crypto and pro-business policies in the first quarter of 2025. Quantitative tightening at $60 billion per month removes about $180 billion from January to March, while the Reverse Repo Facility's drop from about $237 billion to near zero adds $237 billion, a net injection of $57 billion. If Congress delays raising the debt ceiling, the Treasury could spend down its $722 billion general account at the Fed, with exhaustion estimated between May and June.

## 33. Trump Truth

- Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/Trump-Truth?index=0x6762d87e906eb584c47b2f1e3f46817ba438959ce886948727e708d233d4e489005ba3d2
- Source: https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/trump-truth?post_id=153283670&publication_id=1616843
- Shared 18 December 2024, 1 upvote, 0 comments

The author, a macroeconomic forecaster who says he holds positions in crypto, argues that Donald Trump's policies will end the Petroyuan monetary system and bring more money printing and financial repression, and that markets will soon realize Trump has about one year to enact change. The essay says the Republican House and Senate majorities are razor thin and that most legislators start campaigning at the end of 2025 for the November 2026 midterms. It also contends that Trump aims to re-industrialize the US and rebuild its military, which the author describes as weakened after conflicts in Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan and Ukraine.

## 34. The Cure

- Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/The-Cure?index=0x6751f9edfa7044a3b3a58391d30ac552ebcbc66d99d05a68d3f5804c7807239e44922661
- Source: https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/the-cure?r=3ptcv
- Shared 5 December 2024, 1 upvote, 0 comments

The author argues that crypto's growth rests on three pillars (decentralization, the technology, and greed), and that venture-backed token launches have abandoned the third by favoring founders with elite pedigrees over retail returns. Writing about VC coins, the author states that 2024 vintage tokens underperformed the majors (Bitcoin, Ether, and/or Sol) by about 50% on a median basis, citing the author's earlier article "PvP". The author contrasts this with memecoins, which launch with the full supply released and an opening FDV in the single-digit millions of dollars, letting retail buyers participate on decentralized exchanges.

## 35. 加油比特币 Let's Go Bitcoin

- Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/Lets-Go-Bitcoin?index=0x67209bdb38e740faba468f32e0ddc0402e222a28e42dccdbd342169b7dfdeb58f6bec141
- Source: https://open.substack.com/pub/cryptohayes/p/lets-go-bitcoin?r=3ptcv
- Shared 29 October 2024, 1 upvote, 0 comments

Governments that back property bubbles end up bailing out banks, and the author holds that financial success depends on government support rather than merit. Japan, America and the EU each suffered property-bubble crises, and China, under President Xi Jinping, began its own bust by restricting developer credit through the Three Red Lines policy in 2020. Bitcoin is predicted to soar as China injects public funds and quantitative easing to reflate, since Bitcoin prices are said to be driven mainly by aggregate money supply.

## 36. Volatility Supercycle

- Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/Volatility-Supercycle?index=0x66f58a8fb89d8d834791ef35c3b0a0dbaec1d0112b12f8539974c2519341bd87ab48beaf
- Source: https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/volatility-supercycle?r=3ptcv
- Shared 26 September 2024, 1 upvote, 0 comments

Short-term macro forecasts matter less than positioning for the policy response governments make when markets turn volatile, which is always to print money, and crypto holdings benefit from that fiat supply. Between November 2023 and September 2024, the macro calls tallied 2 correct and 6 wrong, a batting average of .250, yet the portfolio is said to keep making money. Bitcoin is presented as a release valve for fiat printed to suppress volatility to unnatural levels.

## 37. Water, Water, Every Where

- Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/Water-Water-Every-Where?index=0x66bb00e2a94ab695fa77786b11bc1ec0eed7197f47505be31e9c395815227add42511e2c
- Source: https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/water-water-every-where
- Shared 13 August 2024, 1 upvote, 0 comments

Treasury debt issuance, rather than Federal Reserve policy, is presented as the main driver of dollar liquidity, and draining the Fed's Reverse Repo Program (RRP) is said to lift risk assets such as Bitcoin. A Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee slide is cited as stating that RRP balances drained as money funds shifted nearly one-for-one into T-bills over 2023-24. The Treasury's Q3 2024 refunding announcement includes $271bn of T-bill issuance, and a $30bn buyback program is said to raise RRP outflows to $301bn.

## 38. Spirited Away

- Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/Spirited-Away?index=0x66b36ad488ee9bd44ed75f0a07f80060617bc3d354ade545a61ca8dfcbb20986d229e3bd
- Source: https://open.substack.com/pub/cryptohayes/p/spirited-away?r=3ptcv
- Shared 7 August 2024, 1 upvote, 0 comments

The author argues that a disorderly unwind of the yen carry trade could trigger a global financial crisis and that Japan's central bank would have to sell large amounts of government bonds, pushing down foreign assets held by Japan Inc. The article describes Japan Inc., which includes the Bank of Japan, corporations, households, pension funds and insurers, as having borrowed yen cheaply to buy foreign assets, with the Bank of Japan holding almost half the JGB market and bank reserves at 102% of GDP. It cites Government Pension Investment Fund holdings of $1.14 trillion and says the dollar-yen pair fell from 160 to 142 in four trading days. Figures are the author's own, drawn from a November 2023 Deutsche Bank report.

## 39. Airhead

- Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/Airhead?index=0x66aa38c7498b497037b1b7ad845c10635125d17c5f5ceff719a59550d3646e2943060bf6
- Source: https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/airhead?isFreemail=true&post_id=146962145&publication_id=1616843&r=3ptcv&triedRedirect=true
- Shared 31 July 2024, 1 upvote, 0 comments

Airheads is a 10,000-piece Bitcoin Ordinals collection from Oyl, presented by its author as a way to showcase inflation-era wealth, and the author discloses that his family office Maelstrom invested in Oyl and that he advises the Oyl team. The author argues that art is the point of human life and that culture-consuming platforms are valuable, and he says Ordinals will bring culture to Bitcoin. Each Airhead is a balloon-like character generated with recursive art to reflect the holder's portfolio size at mint, with access determined by a leaderboard, a whitelist opening August 6, and a Whale Pass priced at 0.069 BTC. Maelstrom says it will tithe part of its drop proceeds to Bitcoin developer grants.

## 40. Zoom Out

- Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/Zoom-Out?index=0x66844cf9498837d3a2bc71db8218a32f5d4112319ee17438f6e04a9b886d050a716ad696
- Source: https://open.substack.com/pub/cryptohayes/p/zoom-out?r=3ptcv
- Shared 2 July 2024, 1 upvote, 0 comments

The author argues that the world is at a turning point between geopolitical and monetary arrangements, with a new Local, inflationary cycle under way since 2008 in which savers face financial repression and gold and Bitcoin are favored over stocks and bonds. The argument draws on a history of cycles beginning in 1933, when Franklin Delano Roosevelt banned private gold ownership and devalued the dollar against gold from $20 to $35. The author contends that Bitcoin's ledger, maintained by a cryptographic blockchain, makes it a superior stateless alternative to gold, though the text is truncated before that case is complete.

## 41. Group of Fools

- Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/Group-of-Fools?index=0x66629f0042629e1d4d0b17cd221dbe40fa66ad578a18adf13644e3cd0a58bb4c2de2a7c2
- Source: https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/group-of-fools
- Shared 7 June 2024, 1 upvote, 0 comments

The author argues that G7 central banks will cut rates to narrow interest rate differentials and weaken the dollar-yen pressure, and that this will spark a crypto rally. The argument rests on the BOJ's 0.1% policy rate against 4-5% elsewhere, and on the BOC and ECB rate cuts made while inflation was above target. The author expects the Fed and BOJ to hold rates in June and predicts a BOE cut, and says the author's own Maelstrom portfolio projects and synthetic-dollar holdings will be redeployed into crypto, with Bitcoin and altcoins named as the trade.

## 42. Yellen or Talkin'?

- Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/Yellen-or-Talkin?index=0x65b0dcb50ea013f4dbeb8b70bf993f2248f9e12d68da7e29b0f477cb7a91e19a490fb90b
- Source: https://open.substack.com/pub/cryptohayes/p/yellen-or-talkin?r=3ptcv
- Shared 24 January 2024, 1 upvote, 0 comments

The author argues that the Fed's recent rate-cut and QT-taper talk is not backed by action, and that Bitcoin's weakness signals a coming mini financial crisis around the March 12 BTFP renewal decision that will force the Fed to act. The essay says Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's November 1, 2023 shift of borrowing into T-bills injected liquidity that will total close to $1 trillion, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell's rate-cut comments have not increased monetary stimulus. The author contends that Bitcoin, which fell from $48,000 to below $40,000 after the spot ETF launch, is anticipating that the BTFP will not be renewed, and predicts a local bottom between $30,000 and $35,000.

## 43. ETF Wif Hat

- Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/ETF-Wif-Hat?index=0x65a6377ef3be7b665b0537e9ca465cf30af109f620b54d74d6bed92a3bf72acca42c23ec
- Source: https://open.substack.com/pub/cryptohayes/p/etf-wif-hat?r=3ptcv
- Shared 16 January 2024, 1 upvote, 0 comments

The author argues that the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs is an attempt by the financial establishment to keep capital inside the traditional system as government bond markets weaken. The essay says central banks' money printing since 2008 has failed to fix underlying debt problems, and that Bitcoin's behavior changed after the 2023 banking stress, when it began rising as bond yields rose. It cites BlackRock's June 2023 application, approved within about six months, compared with the Winklevoss twins' 2013 application, which the SEC denied for over a decade. The essay also says a spot Bitcoin ETF is a trading product rather than Bitcoin itself.

## 44. Signposts

- Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/Signposts?index=0x65972547968ae75ad1cff143ff94b6495b6c2f960b772e935c85fc95092dccfb966c6383
- Source: https://open.substack.com/pub/cryptohayes/p/signposts?r=3ptcv
- Shared 4 January 2024, 1 upvote, 0 comments

The author argues that a decline in the Fed's reverse repo (RRP) balance, combined with the expiry of the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) on March 12th, will drain dollar liquidity and trigger a crypto washout in early March, after which the Fed is expected to restart liquidity support. The author states a base case that the RRP balance hits $200 billion in early March, with the BTFP cancelled on the 12th, reinstated by the 20th, and a Fed rate cut. The author plans to buy Bitcoin put options expiring June 28th with a strike 20% to 25% out of the money, expecting a 20% to 30% correction.

## 45. Panda Power

- Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/Panda-Power?index=0x6565a5c9c778a4fae1e51d0c2a31164d69ffd259b698e269c5c28fffb73667fd92740b31
- Source: https://open.substack.com/pub/cryptohayes/p/panda-power?r=3ptcv
- Shared 28 November 2023, 1 upvote, 0 comments

The author argues that Changpeng Zhao's punishment by US authorities was arbitrary and that crypto is a transformative financial system, and predicts that a US-China thaw will fuel a crypto bull market. Binance grew from 2017 to become the largest centralised crypto trading venue, and CZ paid a $4.3 billion corporate fine, which the author calls absurd given the lack of prosecutions of bank executives. The author contends that the reset between Xi Jinping and Joe Biden at the APEC summit in San Francisco could reduce risks in Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, keeping oil prices low and enabling more Chinese money printing.

## 46. Bad Gurl

- Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/Bad-Gurl?index=0x654dc03c4b9919cb7466bff72d35045f85009b7a65c2011ad8d2b409cc331cfcdf439a0d
- Source: https://open.substack.com/pub/cryptohayes/p/bad-gurl?r=3ptcv
- Shared 10 November 2023, 1 upvote, 0 comments

This opinion piece argues that US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is steering policy to prevent a bear steepening of the Treasury yield curve, which the author says would threaten the banking system. The author predicts a net liquidity injection of $1 trillion, the current size of the Fed's Reverse Repo Program, as money market funds move from the RRP into T-bills. The author also contends that the Fed's recent pause in rate hikes and its inflation metrics are part of this strategy, and cites Bank of America's reported $132 billion unrealised loss on held-to-maturity assets in Q3 2023 as an example of the risk.

## 47. The Periphery

- Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/The-Periphery?index=0x6538511a74695693b8848d70d1054d4f571d5135ebb502dbc07da9f7047ea15cd0268879
- Source: https://open.substack.com/pub/cryptohayes/p/the-periphery?r=3ptcv
- Shared 24 October 2023, 1 upvote, 0 comments

The author argues that the US government's war spending and Fed policy will push up Treasury yields and drive a dangerous bear steepener in the bond market. The argument starts from the claim that Israel's war against Hamas could escalate into a costly conflict the US funds as it did in Iraq and Afghanistan, which the author says cost $10 trillion. The author contends that the Fed's signal of a rate-hike pause let long-end bond investors sell, and cites Fed comments from Neel Kashkari, Logan and Daly in October 2023 as context. The piece then sets out a mortgage hedging example to explain why rising rates threaten bank balance sheets.

## 48. Are we there yet?

- Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/Are-we-there-yet?index=0x6500ef68f46be435e7c2d9860719aa0b480a1507268c4e64d989c48fbfda9938c725a544
- Source: https://open.substack.com/pub/cryptohayes/p/are-we-there-yet?r=3ptcv
- Shared 12 September 2023, 1 upvote, 0 comments

Real yields are argued to remain negative, which would mean the Fed keeps raising rates instead of cutting them. Using the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate of 5.7% real growth for the third quarter as of September 8, plus a 3.7% deflator gap, nominal growth is put at 9.4%, against a 2-year Treasury yield of 5%. The text ties this to falling capital gains tax receipts, noting that the Congressional Budget Office estimated realized gains at 8.7% of GDP in 2021.