# You are not a Lottery Ticket

Source: https://blakemasters.tumblr.com/post/23435743973/peter-thiels-cs183-startup-class-13-notes

## Summary

Peter Thiel's Class 13 notes for CS183: Startup argue that luck plays a smaller role in startup success than people typically assume, and that the future can be shaped rather than left to chance. The notes cite Steve Jobs, Jack Dorsey and Elon Musk, each of whom founded several companies worth over a billion dollars, as evidence against a pure luck explanation. They contrast a determinate future, where firm conviction makes sense, with an indeterminate one, where diversification is the usual response. The notes also say the U.S. has been indeterminately optimistic since about 1982, and that its savings rate is around 4%, while China's is close to 40%.