# All it takes is all you got

Source: https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1773438433714933941
Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/All-it-takes-is-all-you-got?index=0x6605d5eeb5f1c094ada5eab3c6462f772db3c4b25c050f28b9194f3336a326955c8fe51c
Submitted by macbudkowski.eth on 2024-03-28 UTC, 3 upvotes, 0 comments

## Summary

The author's central claim is that the US government can seize household assets to cover its debts, so the apparent $177 trillion in household assets is not a safety net for the state. The piece cites a Treasury quote that the Social Security and Medicare present-value need is $175.3 trillion, which it says lines up with Stanley Druckenmiller's roughly $200 trillion estimate of all-in US liabilities. It also notes that federal revenue was $1.86 trillion last year and that the dollar is down about 25% in real terms since 2020.

## Article

ALL IT TAKES IS ALL YOU GOT

Wow, I love this so much.
First, the debt didn't matter.
Now, it still doesn't matter...
Because the state can take all your assets to pay it!

Here's the graph Brent cites:

Below is that same graph with titles and labels[1]. See how it says balance sheet of households and nonprofit organizations? So that $177T number isn't really about government assets. It's just everything every American household (and nonprofit, hedge fund, PE fund, and personal trust) owns[2].

And now we're getting down to brass tacks.

See, Keynesianism is like Communism in that it sees no real difference between household and government assets. There is no moral limit on how much they can take from the population via inflation and seizure, only practical limits. So, your household assets can and will be taken to pay for what this failed state owes.

And how much does it owe? Well for that we can go to a recent analysis[3] of the Feb 2024 Financial Report of the United States Government[4].

Here's the table where the US government itself admits that even $37T is an underestimate of the debt. When you include the "social insurance" of Social Security and Medicare it's another $78.4T line item.

But wait, there's more!

Later in the doc Treasury itself admits even *this* is a sharp underestimate of what the US owes in terms of Social Security and Medicare because it's not accounting for future payouts decades from now. Once it does, what does the number get to? Here's the direct quote from them:

"The total...sums to **$175.3 trillion** in PV terms. This need can be satisfied only through increased borrowing, higher taxes, reduced program spending, or some combination."

That $175.3T lines up with the ~$200T number that Druckenmiller[5] has been using for the all-in liabilities of the US government when you take everything into account. And of course, at this point we are in monopoly money territory, because:

a) The entire fedguv only collected $1.86T last year[6]
b) That number is itself juiced by deficit spending
c) The dollar is down ~25% in real terms since 2020[7]
d) And the "177T" in asset value plummets if liquidated
e) ...or if there is a financial crisis, or both

So: no, the US government doesn't have nearly enough to pay for what it owes. It's made promises to everyone, from allies to retirees, that it simply can't keep. To hang on to power amidst that web of broken obligations, it is going to get nasty on a level beyond which most can really comprehend.

I appreciate, however, that we are starting to glimpse the endgame. When a bankrupt state collapses, it's like a black hole. It sucks everything it can into its gaping maw. Everything it can possibly seize, will be seized. Everything it can possibly print, will be printed.

All your assets become its assets.
All it takes...is all you got.