# Thoughts on current market consensus

Source: https://warpcast.com/casslineth/0x5100556e
Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/Thoughts-on-current-market-consensus?index=0x668e491ff09680313196cbe1b33f636068809888167ec77cdc5168fca13cba976258d7a7
Submitted by casslin.eth on 2024-07-10 UTC, 2 upvotes, 0 comments

## Summary

The author's conclusion is that crypto trading is now dominated by traditional finance through ETF flows, and that other crypto sectors have lost their momentum. The post says ETF flow only benefits BTC and ETH, with no new money entering other sectors, and that CME volume has surpassed offshore centralized exchange volumes. It names L2s, ZKs, alt L1s, fast chains and intents as last-cycle narratives that have become saturated, with dry liquidity. It also says TON's large user base draws attention to the "mass adoption" narrative, which it describes as the only attractive one right now, and concludes that crypto needs a use case beyond finance to attract new users and money.

## Article

Catch up w/ a few old frens who are also founders yesterday. Last time we saw each other irl was last cycle & a different country. 

Thoughts on current market consensus: 

1. This cycle crypto trading getting dominated by tradfi giants due to ETF flow. CME volume surpassed offshore cex volumes.

2. ETF flow only cares BTC + ETH. No new money inflow into other sectors. 

3. Existing narratives all from last cycle & become saturate: L2s, ZKs, Alt L1s, super fast chains, intents. Emotion exhaustion reflected on dry liquidity. No one cares (as much!), no money actively trades those assets; 

4. Ton's large user base attracts ppl attention on the "mass adoption" narrative, only one that sounds attractive for now; 

5.  If we see crypto as only about finance, that's it now. it largely turns into a sector in tradefi; 

6. if we still hold belief in crypto holds sth new, must have other use case scenario cross the chasm for new ppl, new narrative, new mood & new money get in