# @goodalexander: Thiel told me trends weren't interesting, then sells the top

Source: https://x.com/goodalexander/status/1960768873776456184
Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/goodalexander-Thiel-told-me-trends-werent-interesting-then-sells-the-top?index=0x68b0297b92b049cf7c09d675705d5604d373d5e168fe60649077b54457b92a0d5722cb02
Submitted by tim on 2025-08-28 UTC, 1 upvote, 0 comments

## Summary

Alexander Good recounts pitching Peter Thiel on a trend-detection system, and argues that powerful people have little reason to tell the truth about their process. He says Thiel dismissed the idea because a trend that is already in place is likely overvalued, and that Thiel then sold all his previous investments at the top. Alexander extends the point to Warren Buffett, claiming Buffett's public advice misleads readers who buy value stocks, and concludes that only first-party study and collection of data is worth trusting.

## Article

I met with Peter Thiel once

I pitched him on a system to detect trends

he told me it wasn't interesting because by the time a trend is in place, it means that it's likely overvalued

I thought I learned a lost then he top blasted all his previous investments and turbo printed 

this was probably the first time I internalized that powerful people have no real reason to tell you the truth behind their process. you can just say things. You can show up to Market Wizards and fabricate your entire process and nobody will know. 

all rhetoric is just a methodology to reach an objective, especially with the powerful, there is zero truth value 

applies to many areas of life

TruthCels will read Warren Buffet's newsletter and buy value stocks and underperform for decades while Buffett full ports AAPL at 26x earnings and sells the highs 

everything you think you've learned from people is probably just some sht they said in the moment, either to give them a compliance benefit. cheapen a deal. meme a founder into doing something. who knows 

you certainly don't. I certainly don't. the only data worth anything is first party study / collection