# @polynya: Bitcoin block size wars proved gambling TAM beats utility by 1000x

Source: https://farcaster.xyz/polynya/0x08ab76f7
Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/polynya-Bitcoin-block-size-wars-proved-gambling-TAM-beats-utility-by-1000x?index=0x68c7ac33b96db42dbaa56ad7ff5acbc0f25e28b58f5b7ea520eb364cbd5fb9d38c96e510
Submitted by misha on 2025-09-15 UTC, 2 upvotes, 0 comments

## Summary

@polynya argues that speculation drives crypto market value far more than utility, citing the 2017 Bitcoin block size debate as evidence. In November 2017, Bitcoin Cash reached nearly 50% of Bitcoin's market cap, with a substantial minority convinced it would overtake Bitcoin. Eight years later, Bitcoin remains barely utilized despite its anemic block size yet has become a multi-trillion dollar asset, while Bitcoin Cash is at 0.5% of Bitcoin's market cap, about 1/100th of its peak.

## Article

In 2017, Bitcoiners fought tooth and nail over block size, with one camp claiming Bitcoin will die without drastically increase throughput, while the other saying Bitcoin will die by increasing system requirements and compromising decentralization. In November 2017, Bitcoin Cash got to nearly 50% the market cap of Bitcoin under this premise, with a substantial minority convinced Bitcoin Cash would flippen Bitcoin

They were both wrong!

8 years later, Bitcoin despite its anemic block size is barely utilized, but it's become a multi-trillion dollar success story. Bitcoin Cash, meanwhile, is 0.5% the market cap of BTC, 1/100th of its peak

The lesson: the TAM for gambling is thousands of times greater than whatever "blockchain utility" you can think of

Re: "subsidy sustainability" - also doesn't matter, as by the time that happens, most BTC will be owned by ETF custodians, and they can effectively turn it into PoS or PoA or whatever they want. All that matters is belief and religious fervour in the ticker