# List of predictions for autonomous Tesla vehicles by Elon Musk - Wikipedia

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autonomous_Tesla_vehicles_by_Elon_Musk
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## Summary

Elon Musk's predictions for fully autonomous Tesla vehicles have repeatedly missed their stated deadlines, according to a Wikipedia list tracking them from 2013 onward. Most entries are marked as unmet, including his 2016 claim that complete autonomy was less than two years away and his 2018 suggestion that a coast-to-coast drive could take three to six months. Tesla says full autonomy depends on reliability far beyond human drivers and on regulatory approval, which may take longer in some jurisdictions. A 2023 investor lawsuit alleging securities fraud over these timelines was dismissed in September 2024 after Tesla's lawyers argued the statements were "corporate puffery."

## Article

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, Inc., has made numerous predictions for autonomous Tesla vehicles. The predictions concern Tesla's suite of advanced driver assistance system (ADAS) functions, marketed as of December 2025 as "Full Self-Driving (Supervised)" ("FSD"), and provide estimates for when Tesla will achieve fully autonomous driving, requiring no human intervention, which SAE considers Level 5 automation. Tesla does not classify FSD according to the SAE levels of autonomy, but has acknowledged that full autonomy is "dependent on achieving reliability far in excess of human drivers as demonstrated by billions of miles of experience, as well as regulatory approval, which may take longer in some jurisdictions".[1]

Musk has publicly stated estimated timelines and intended capabilities of the system since at least 2013.[2] FSD and Autopilot are classified as SAE Level 2 ADAS, as of January 2024.[1][3] A lawsuit filed in February 2023 by Tesla investors alleging that Musk committed securities fraud by making misleading statements about the development timeline of autonomous Tesla vehicles[4] was dismissed without prejudice in September 2024; the judge ruled that Tesla's legal team successfully argued that Elon Musk's statements were "corporate puffery", i.e., vague corporate optimism.[5]

Elon Musk's predictions for autonomous Tesla vehicles

DatePredictionQuoteMetRef.

Sep 2013 2016 "We should be able to do 90 percent of miles driven [autonomously] within three years."

No [2]

Jun 2014 2015 "I am confident that in less than a year you will be able to go from highway on ramp to highway exits without touching any controls."

No [6]

Oct 2014 2015 "A Tesla car next year will probably be 90-percent capable of autopilot. Like, so 90 percent of your miles can be on auto. For sure highway travel." AP/HW1 released Oct 2015 for highways[7] [8][9]

Oct 2014 2023 "I think we’ll be able to achieve true autonomous driving, where you could literally get in the car, go to sleep and wake up at your destination,"

No [10]

Oct 2015 2018 "From a technology standpoint, Tesla will have a car that can do full autonomy in about three years, maybe a bit sooner."

No [11]

Dec 2015 2017 "We're going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years."

No [12]

Jan 2016 2018 "Ultimately you'll be able to summon your car anywhere … your car can get to you. I think that within two years, you'll be able to summon your car from across the country. It will meet you wherever your phone is … and it will just automatically charge itself along the entire journey."

No [13]

Jun 2016 2019 "I consider autonomous driving to be a basically solved problem. ... We're less than two years away from complete autonomy. Regulators however will take at least another year; they'll want to see billions of miles of data."

No [14]

Oct 2016 Dec 2017 "Our goal is, and I feel pretty good about this goal, that we'll be able to do a demonstration drive of full autonomy all the way from LA to New York, from home in LA to let's say dropping you off in Times Square in New York, and then having the car go park itself, by the end of next year. Without the need for a single touch, including the charger."

No [15][16][17]

Apr 2017 Dec 2017 "November or December of this year, we should be able to go from a parking lot in California to a parking lot in New York, no controls touched at any point during the entire journey."

No [18]

May 2017 2019 "I think [a driver will be able to sleep at the wheel in] about two years. So the real trick of it is not how do you make it work say 99.9 percent of the time, because, like, if a car crashes one in a thousand times, then you're probably still not going to be comfortable falling asleep. You shouldn't be, certainly."

No [19][20]

Feb 2018 Aug 2018 "I mean, timing-wise, I think we could probably do a coast-to-coast drive in three months, six months at the outside."

No [21]

Mar 2018 Dec 2019 "Self-driving will encompass all modes of driving by the end of next year."

No [22]

Nov 2018 2019 "You know, I think we'll get to full self-driving next year. As a generalized solution, I think. But that's a ... Like we're on track to do that next year. So I don't know. I don't think anyone else is on track to do it next year."

No [23]

Feb 2019 Dec 2019 "I think we will be feature complete — full self-driving — this year, meaning the car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up and take you all the way to your destination without an intervention, this year. I would say I am of certain of that. That is not a question mark."

No [24]

Apr 2019 2020 "I feel very confident predicting that there will be autonomous robotaxis from Tesla next year — not in all jurisdictions because we won't have regulatory approval everywhere. ... maybe a year and three months, but next year for sure, we'll have over a million robotaxis on the road."

No [25]

Apr 2020 2020 "[Robotaxi] functionality still looking good for this year. Regulatory approval is the big unknown."

No [26][27]

Jul 2020 Dec 2020 "I remain confident that we will have the basic functionality for level five autonomy complete this year."

No [28][29]

Jan 2021 Dec 2021 "... I'm highly confident the car will drive itself for the reliability in excess of a human this year."

No [30]

Apr 2022 Dec 2022 "... in order to solve driving, we have to solve neural nets and cameras to a degree of capability that is on par with, or really exceeds humans. And I think we will achieve that this year."

No [31]

Aug 2022 Dec 2022 "The two technologies I am focused on, trying to ideally get done before the end of the year, are getting our Starship into orbit ... and then having Tesla cars to be able to do self-driving. ... Have self-driving in wide release at least in the U.S., and ... potentially in Europe, depending on regulatory approval." FSD beta wide release Nov 2022[a] [34]

May 2023 Dec 2023 "I mean, it does look like [full autonomy is] gonna happen this year."

No [35]

Jul 2023 Dec 2023 "I think we’ll achieve full self-driving, maybe what you would call four or five, I think later this year."

No [36]

Jul 2023 Dec 2023 "... I think we'll be better than human by the end of this year. I've been wrong in the past, I may be wrong this time."

No [37]

Jan 2024 Dec 2024 "You know, I really think lots of car companies should be asking for [full self-driving] licenses. [...] we've had some tentative conversations, but I think they don't believe it's real quite yet. I think that that will become obvious probably this year. [...] if I were CEO of another car company, I would definitely be calling Tesla and asking to license Tesla full self-driving technology."[b]

No [38]

Oct 2024 Dec 2025 "We do expect actually to start fully autonomous, unsupervised FSD in Texas and California next year. ... and then we expect to be in production with the CyberCab which is really highly optimized for autonomous transport in probably, well, I tend to be a little optimistic with time frames ... but in 2026."

No [39]

Dec 2026 (Cybercab) CyberCab in limited production, but with partial vehicle automation[40]

Jan 2025 Jun 2025 "We're going to be launching unsupervised Full Self-Driving as a paid service in Austin in June." Launched June 22, 2025 with safety monitor[41][c] [44]

Apr 2025 Dec 2025 "The acid test is, can you go to sleep in your car and wake up in your destination and I'm confident that will be available in many cities in the US by the end of this year."

No [45]

Dec 2026 "I predict that there will be millions of Teslas operating fully autonomously in the second half of next year." TBD [46]

Jun 2025 Jun 28, 2025 "Tentatively, [Robotaxi will launch] June 22. We are being super paranoid about safety, so the date could shift. First Tesla that drives itself from factory end of line all the way to a customer house is June 28."

Yes[47][d] [49]

Jul 2025 Dec 2025 "I think we'll probably have autonomous ride hailing in probably half the population of the U.S. by the end of the year. That's at least our goal subject to regulatory approvals."

No [50][51]

"I think [FSD] will be available for unsupervised personal use by the end of this year in certain geographies."

No [50][52]

Jul 2025 Dec 2026 "But I guess next year is — I'd say confidently next year. I'm not sure when next year, but confidently next year, people would be able to add or subtract their car to the Tesla, Inc. fleet." TBD [50][53]

Sep 2025 Dec 2025 “[Robotaxi] Should be no safety driver by end of year.”

No [54]

Jan 2026 Apr 2026 "... the CyberCab, which is a specific model that we're making, does not have a steering wheel or pedals. ... We expect to start production in April."

Yes, at a reduced, "very slow" rate[40] [55]

Jan 2026 Dec 2026 "We expect to have fully autonomous vehicles in probably somewhere between a quarter and half of the United States by the end of the year, pending regulatory approval. ... we expect to be in dozens of major cities by the end of the year." TBD [55]

Notes

↑ "Wide release" in November 2022 means the time in which the beta version of FSD became available to all Tesla owners in North America who had purchased the FSD package.[32] Prior to wide release, access to FSD Beta was limited to owners who had purchased FSD and were qualified with a high driver safety score, as calculated by Tesla.[33]

↑ Musk is interpreted as omitting "to car company CEOs" when he uses 'obvious'. His prediction concerns the representative beliefs of car company CEOs (versus their actual psychological states) about Tesla Autopilot's effectiveness changing collectively.

↑ The safety monitor rides in the front passenger seat[42] and has access to a button that performs an emergency stop.[43] At launch, the service was offered to a limited number of invited passengers, with time and domain restrictions.[43]

↑ The Model Y drove approximately 15 mi (24 km) from the factory to the owner's apartment complex using Robotaxi software, without a human onboard and no remote assistance, according to Musk. Upon delivery, the software was rolled back to Full Self-Driving (Supervised).[48]

Criticism of Tesla, Inc.

Tesla Autopilot regulatory and legal actions

List of Tesla Autopilot crashes

1 2 Ramey, Jay (January 26, 2024). "Tesla Bets On AI In Latest FSD Update". Autoweek. Retrieved December 4, 2024.

1 2 Ackerman, Evan (September 18, 2013). "Tesla Working Towards 90 Percent Autonomous Car Within Three Years". IEEE Spectrum. Retrieved August 1, 2023.

↑ Baldwin, Roberto (March 9, 2021). "Tesla Tells California DMV that FSD Is Not Capable of Autonomous Driving". Car and Driver. Retrieved December 4, 2024.

↑ Lamontagne v. Tesla, Inc. (3:23-cv-00869) (N.D. Cal. February 27, 2023), Text.

↑ Hawkins, Andrew J. (October 1, 2024). "Tesla wins again as lawsuit challenging Autopilot claims is dismissed". The Verge. Retrieved June 25, 2025.

↑ "Tesla's 2014 Shareholder meeting".

↑ Amadeo, Ron (October 14, 2015). "Driving (or kind of not driving) a Tesla Model S with Autopilot". Ars Technica. Retrieved August 1, 2023.

↑ Ziegler, Chris (October 2, 2014). "Elon Musk says next year's Tesla cars will be able to self-drive 90 percent of the time". The Verge. Retrieved August 1, 2023.

↑ Ackerman, Evan (October 7, 2014). "Musk Promises 90% Autopilot for Teslas in 2015, Doesn't Say How". IEEE Spectrum. Retrieved August 1, 2023.

↑ "Elon Musk: We'll Have Driverless Cars By 2023". HuffPost UK. October 15, 2014. Archived from the original on June 15, 2024. Retrieved December 21, 2025.

↑ Voelcker, John (October 16, 2015). "Tesla Autopilot: The 10 Most Important Things You Need To Know". Green Car Reports. Retrieved August 1, 2023.

↑ Elon Musk (December 21, 2015). "Elon Musk Says Tesla Vehicles Will Drive Themselves in Two Years". Fortune (Interview). Interviewed by Kirsten Korosec. Retrieved July 28, 2023.

↑ D'Orazio, Dante (January 10, 2016). "Elon Musk predicts a Tesla will be able to drive itself across the country in 2018". The Verge. Retrieved August 1, 2023.

↑ Eadicicco, Lisa (June 2, 2016). "Elon Musk Just Made These 5 Bold Claims About the Future". Time. Retrieved August 3, 2023.

↑ Brandom, Russell (October 19, 2016). "Tesla wants new self-driving tech to autonomously road trip from LA to New York". The Verge. Retrieved July 28, 2023.

↑ Etherington, Darrell (October 19, 2016). "Musk targeting coast-to-coast test drive of fully self-driving Tesla by late 2017". TechCrunch. Retrieved August 1, 2023.

↑ Eisenstein, Paul A. (October 20, 2016). "A Driverless Tesla Will Travel From L.A. to NYC by 2017, Says Musk". NBC News. Retrieved August 1, 2023.

↑ Greene, Brian (April 28, 2017). "What will the future look like? Elon Musk speaks at TED2017". TED Blog. Retrieved August 3, 2023.

↑ "Watch and Read the Transcript of Elon Musk's 'Boring' TED Talk". Entrepreneur. May 3, 2017. Retrieved August 1, 2023.

↑ Mitrache, Vlad (May 1, 2017). "You'll Be Able to Sleep in Your Tesla on the Move Two Years from Now, Musk Says". Auto Evolution. Retrieved August 1, 2023.

↑ "Tesla (TSLA) Q4 2017 Results - Earnings Call Transcript". Seeking Alpha. February 7, 2018. Retrieved August 3, 2023.

↑ Lambert, Fred (March 11, 2018). "Tesla CEO Elon Musk: 'self-driving will encompass all modes of driving by the end of next year'". Electrek. Archived from the original on October 6, 2025. Retrieved December 21, 2025.

↑ Elon Musk (November 5, 2018). "Full Q&A: Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk on Recode Decode". Recode Decode (Interview). Interviewed by Kara Swisher. Vox. Retrieved August 3, 2023.

↑ Ferris, Robert (February 19, 2019). "Elon Musk: Tesla will have all its self-driving car features by the end of the year". CNBC. Retrieved July 28, 2023.

↑ Korosec, Kirsten (April 22, 2019). "Tesla plans to launch a robotaxi network in 2020". TechCrunch. Retrieved July 28, 2023.

↑ Baldwin, Roberto (April 16, 2020). "Elon Musk Says Tesla Robotaxis Will Still Be Ready in 2020". Car and Driver. Retrieved February 13, 2024.

↑ Hyatt, Kyle (April 27, 2020). "Tesla's robotaxi fleet will be 'functionally ready' in 2020, Musk says". CNet. Retrieved February 13, 2024.

↑ Goh, Brenda; Sun, Yilei (July 8, 2020). "Tesla 'very close' to level 5 autonomous driving technology, Musk says". Reuters. Retrieved August 1, 2023.

↑ "Elon Musk says full self-driving Tesla tech 'very close'". BBC News. July 9, 2020. Retrieved August 1, 2023.

↑ "Tesla (TSLA) Q4 2020 Earnings Call Transcript". The Motley Fool. January 27, 2021. Retrieved August 3, 2023.

↑ Bellan, Rebecca; Korosec, Kirsten (April 20, 2022). "Musk says Tesla aspires to mass produce robotaxis by 2024". Tech Crunch. Retrieved August 1, 2023.

↑ Ali, Iqtidar (November 28, 2022). "Tesla 'Full Self Driving' Beta Goes Out For Wide Release in North America". CleanTechnica. Retrieved July 7, 2025.

↑ Kolodny, Lora; Petrova, Magdalena (February 15, 2022). "Tesla FSD Beta users show how the system works — and doesn't". CNBC. Retrieved July 7, 2025.

↑ Adomaitis, Nerijus; Buli, Nora (August 29, 2022). "Elon Musk: focused on getting self-driving Teslas in wide release by year-end". Reuters. Retrieved August 1, 2023.

↑ Elon Musk (May 16, 2023). "CNBC Exclusive: CNBC Transcript: Elon Musk Sits Down with CNBC's David Faber Live on CNBC Tonight". CNBC Tonight (Interview). Interviewed by David Faber. Retrieved August 1, 2023.

↑ Lambert, Fred (July 6, 2023). "Elon Musk believes Tesla will have 'level 4 or 5' self-driving this year - what does that mean?". Electrek. Archived from the original on May 1, 2025. Retrieved December 21, 2025.

↑ Roy, Abhirup (July 20, 2023). "Tesla's Elon Musk optimistic on progress for self-driving, robots". Reuters. Retrieved August 3, 2023.

↑ "Tesla (TSLA) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript". The Motley Fool. January 24, 2024. Retrieved January 29, 2024.

↑ "Everything Announced at Tesla's 'We, Robot' Event". CNET. October 10, 2024. Retrieved October 11, 2024.

1 2 Valdes, Alex (April 24, 2026). "Cybercab Begins Production, but Elon Musk Says It Will Be 'Very Slow' to Start". CNET. Retrieved May 5, 2026.

↑ McMahon, Liv (June 22, 2025). "Tesla robotaxi 'low-key' launch in Texas". BBC News. Retrieved June 25, 2025. Forrester analyst Paul Miller described the launch of the pilot as a "low-key affair". "As expected, only a handful of vehicles are available right now, they only operate in a small part of the city and there's a safety driver in the vehicle in case it encounters situations it cannot handle autonomously," he said.

↑ Roth, Emma (June 20, 2025). "Tesla's first robotaxi rides will have a 'safety monitor' in the passenger seat". The Verge. Retrieved July 23, 2025.

1 2 Roy, Abhirup; Levy, Rachael; Kirkham, Chris (June 26, 2025). "Tesla's robotaxi peppered with driving mistakes in Texas tests". Reuters. Retrieved July 23, 2025. Tesla is conducting the test with human safety monitors in the front passenger seat. A fourth video showed the safety monitor hitting a button to stop the robotaxi when a delivery truck in front of it started backing up. [...] "Musk for years has failed to deliver on promises that self-driving Teslas are just around the corner. Tesla rolled out the service for a flat fee of $4.20 to a limited number of handpicked riders. The service is not available to the broader public and the robotaxis operate in a limited area, and avoid difficult intersections and bad weather.

↑ "Tesla Q4 and Full Year 2024 Financial Results and Q&A Webcast". Tesla. January 29, 2025. Retrieved January 29, 2025.

↑ Bhuiyan, Johana (April 22, 2025). "Elon Musk to pull back in Doge role starting May amid 71% dip in Tesla profits". The Guardian. Retrieved April 27, 2025.

↑ Kirkham, Chris (April 24, 2025). "Tesla doubles down on robotaxi timeline; investors enthused - and skeptical". Reuters. Retrieved April 27, 2025.

↑ Hawkins, Andrew J. (June 28, 2025). "Tesla says it delivered its first car autonomously from factory to customer". The Verge. Retrieved June 29, 2025.

↑ O'Kane, Sean (June 30, 2025). "Tesla sends driverless Model Y from factory to customer to promote its robotaxi tech". TechCrunch. Retrieved July 7, 2025.

↑ Al-Heeti, Abrar (June 11, 2025). "Elon Musk Says Tesla's Robotaxi Service Will 'Tentatively' Kick Off June 22 in Austin". CNET. Retrieved June 12, 2025.

1 2 3 "Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript". The Motley Fool. July 23, 2025. Retrieved July 23, 2025.

↑ Ruwitch, John; Domonoske, Camila (July 23, 2025). "Tesla profits slide 16%, despite Elon Musk's pivot back to his companies". NPR. Retrieved July 23, 2025.

↑ Ewing, Jack (July 23, 2025). "Tesla Reports Falling Profit as Car Sales Slow". The New York Times. Retrieved July 23, 2025.

↑ Mathews, Jessica (July 23, 2025). "Elon Musk says Tesla will start adding vehicles it doesn't directly own into its robotaxi network next year". Fortune. Retrieved July 23, 2025.

↑ Klender, Joey (September 4, 2025). "Elon Musk says Tesla will take Safety Drivers out of Robotaxi: here's when". TESLARATI. Retrieved October 16, 2025.

1 2 "Tesla (TSLA) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript". The Motley Fool. January 28, 2026. Retrieved January 28, 2026.