# ETHval | Intrinsic Value Dashboard

Source: https://ethval.com
Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/ETHval-or-Intrinsic-Value-Dashboard?index=0x69277ca33940a2ae6330066624da50efe0f1475a2ad4504940e3e52515512d5a50573b17
Submitted by tim on 2025-11-26 UTC, 6 upvotes, 1 comment

## Summary

ETHval is a dashboard that estimates Ethereum's intrinsic value using 12 valuation models grouped into four categories: Traditional Finance, On-chain Asset Value, Network Effects, and Supply Scarcity. Its composite fair value is a simple average of the 12 active models, and any model can be toggled off to exclude it. The dashboard says it is free, and logging in with X and rating two models unlocks 3-year historical data and a What-If Simulator. Its Staking DCF uses a 9% discount rate and 3% perpetual growth rate, while the TVL Multiple model uses a 7x multiple. A disclaimer notes that the models are for reference only.

## Article

Current Price Loading

Composite Fair Value (12 / 12 models)

Opportunity

ETHval derives Ethereum's intrinsic value using 12 valuation models across four methodological categories: Traditional Finance (Staking DCF, P/S Ratio, Fee Yield, Validator Economics), On-chain Asset Value (TVL Multiple, App Capital), Network Effects (Metcalfe's Law, ETH Monetary, Ecosystem Settlement, L2 Ecosystem), and Supply Scarcity (Staking Scarcity, Liquidity Premium).

Proof of Rating: ETHval is completely free. No subscriptions, no hidden fees. Log in with 𝕏 and rate just 2 models to unlock 3Y historical data & the What-If Simulator. Your ratings help refine the valuation framework. Think of it as staking your opinion to earn access. Let's build better data together!

Found this useful? Share it on 𝕏 and help others discover it. If you spot a bug or have suggestions, I’m always happy to hear from you!

01.1 News Impact on Price

Price × √(Supply ÷ (Supply - Staked))

min(Price × (1+APR) ÷ (Discount - Growth), 3 × Price)

(TVL + L2×Weight) × Multiple ÷ Supply

(Burned L1 Fees + Burned Blob Fees) × 365 × PSRatio ÷ Supply

(Burned L1 Fees + Burned Blob Fees) × 365 ÷ APR ÷ Supply

Price × √(Supply ÷ Liquid Float)

(L1 ETH Vol + L2 ETH Vol) × 365 ÷ ETH Velocity ÷ Supply

Ecosystem Settlement (MV=PQ)

(L1 Total Vol + L2 Total Vol) × 365 ÷ Ecosystem Velocity ÷ Supply

Composite Fair Value (12 / 12 models)

$--

-- vs Current

--

Current Price $--

Median $--

Potential --%

Simple average of 12 active models. Toggle off any model to exclude it from the calculation.

Market Price $--

Composite Fair Value $-- --

Market Price

Composite Fair Value 12 / 12

👇Click a model to show or hide its line on the chart

TVL Multiple --

Staking Scarcity --

Metcalfe's Law --

Staking DCF --

L2 Ecosystem --

P/S Ratio (25x) --

Fee Yield --

Liquidity Premium --

App Capital --

Validator Economics --

ETH Monetary (MV=PQ) --

Ecosystem Settlement --

Market Price $--

Current Fair Value $-- --%

Simulated Fair Value $-- --%

Scenario Variables (drag to adjust)

Total Value Locked (TVL) $70B → $70B

More capital locked in DeFi = greater network utility. Drives Network Fees (+50%), Ecosystem Settlement (+50%), and Liquidity Premium. Impacts TVL Multiple, Metcalfe, and L2 Ecosystem models.

Daily Network Fees (L1 + Blob) $2.1M → $2.1M

Higher fees = more economic activity. Also affected by TVL changes. Drives P/S ratio and yield valuations.

Staking Ratio 28% → 28%

More staked = reduced liquid supply. Impacts Staking Scarcity, Liquidity Premium, and validator APR (affects DCF and Validator Economics).

Stablecoins on Ethereum $166B → $166B

Real-world capital on Ethereum. Directly drives App Capital model. Indirectly boosts TVL (+30%) and Network Fees (+30%) through DeFi activity.

L1 Daily Active Addresses 400K → 400K

Unique addresses transacting on L1. Directly drives Metcalfe's Law (n² effect). Proportionally scales Fees, ETH Monetary, and Ecosystem Settlement (2x users = 2x volume).

ETH / USD

Market Cap $--

24h Volume $--

ATH $-- --

Float Staking DeFi Others

TVL × Multiple ÷ Supply

Values ETH based on total assets locked in DeFi protocols. The 7x multiple is derived from historical MC/TVL ratios during balanced market conditions (2020-2023 average). Higher TVL indicates greater network utility, adoption, and trust in Ethereum's smart contract ecosystem. This model assumes DeFi activity is a primary value driver for ETH.

Price × √(Supply ÷ (Supply - Staked))

Applies a scarcity premium when circulating supply decreases due to staking. As more ETH is locked in validators (currently ~28%), liquid supply shrinks, theoretically increasing price pressure. The square root function dampens extreme valuations while still capturing the scarcity effect. This model gained relevance post-Merge with ETH's transition to Proof-of-Stake.

Coef × TVL^Exp ÷ Supply

Network value grows proportionally to the square of active users/nodes. Originally developed for telecommunications, this model has been empirically validated for Bitcoin and Ethereum by academic researchers (Alabi 2017, Peterson 2018). Uses TVL as a proxy for network activity. The 1.5 exponent (between linear and quadratic) accounts for real-world network friction.

min(Price × (1 + APR) ÷ (Discount - Growth), 3 × Price)

Traditional Discounted Cash Flow analysis treating staking rewards as perpetual cash flows. Uses live staking APR from Lido API as the cash flow rate, 9% discount rate (4.5% risk-free rate + 4.5% crypto equity risk premium), and 3% perpetual growth rate. The higher risk premium reflects full ETH price exposure including volatility, regulatory, and smart contract risks.

(TVL + L2×Weight) × Multiple ÷ Supply

Captures value from Ethereum's Layer 2 scaling ecosystem (Arbitrum, Optimism, Base, zkSync, etc.). L2 TVL is weighted 2x because L2 activity settles on Ethereum mainnet, consuming blockspace and burning ETH via EIP-1559. This model recognizes that Ethereum's value extends beyond L1 to its entire rollup-centric roadmap and modular blockchain thesis.

(Burned L1 Fees + Burned Blob Fees) × 365 × PSRatio ÷ Supply

Price-to-Sales ratio comparing market cap to annual transaction fee revenue. Unlike traditional companies, L1 protocols like Ethereum have no "net income" at the protocol level. All fees flow to validators. Therefore, P/S (not P/E) is the industry standard, as used by Token Terminal. The 25x multiple reflects growth tech stock valuations. Burned fees fall on weekends (last 6 months: weekend median about half of weekdays, matching on-chain base-fee burn), so the daily line dips every Sat/Sun. This is real activity, not missing data.

(Burned L1 Fees + Burned Blob Fees) × 365 ÷ APR ÷ Supply

Reverse-engineers fair value from live staking APR, treating ETH like a yield-bearing bond. If Ethereum generates X in annual fees and the current staking yield is Y%, the implied market cap is X ÷ Y%. Uses real-time Lido stETH APR instead of a fixed target yield. This approach is favored by TradFi analysts evaluating crypto as an alternative asset class. Burned fees fall on weekends (last 6 months: weekend median about half of weekdays, matching on-chain base-fee burn), so the daily line dips every Sat/Sun. This is real activity, not missing data.

Price × √(Supply ÷ Liquid Float)

Based on Amihud's liquidity premium theory: as tradeable ETH decreases, reduced market liquidity creates upward price pressure. Liquid Float = Supply minus all locked ETH (staking, DeFi, L2 bridges, lost/dormant wallets). More comprehensive than Staking Scarcity as it includes all illiquid supply. Current Liquid Float: --%

AppCapital ÷ Supply

App Capital represents total on-chain assets: stablecoins, ERC-20 tokens, NFTs, RWAs, and bridged assets. Since direct App Capital data is unavailable, we estimate it using the 28% stablecoin ratio (Stablecoins/AppCapital) which has been stable since 2021. App Capital serves as a floor for market cap: network security (MC) must back the value of all settled assets. Unlike TVL (DeFi only), App Capital captures Ethereum's full settlement layer role.

Price × (Target ÷ APR)

Calculates fair value based on the ratio of target staking yield to current APR. Target yield (6%) = risk-free rate assumption (4.5%, model constant; live 10Y is in 02.2) + Staking risk premium (~1.5%). The lower premium (vs. 4.5% in DCF) reflects staking's reduced risk profile: predictable validator rewards, no impermanent loss, and protocol-level security. If current APR is below target, ETH is undervalued.

(L1 ETH Vol + L2 ETH Vol) × 365 ÷ ETH Velocity ÷ Supply

Measures ETH as money using the Equation of Exchange (MV=PQ). Only counts native ETH transfers on L1 and L2 and excludes stablecoins, DeFi tokens, and other assets. This isolates ETH's direct monetary function from Ethereum's broader settlement activity. Velocity = 6 reflects ETH's store-of-value characteristics: 28% locked in staking, institutional accumulation post-ETF, and long-term holder behavior. This is empirically aligned with USD M1 velocity (~5.5x) and academic research showing crypto velocities of 4-6x annually. Lower velocity implies higher fair value. Native ETH transfer volume falls on weekends (last 6 months: weekend median about 40% of weekdays, matching on-chain block sampling), so the daily line dips every Sat/Sun. This is real activity, not missing data.

(L1 Total Vol + L2 Total Vol) × 365 ÷ Ecosystem Velocity ÷ Supply

Measures Ethereum as settlement infrastructure using MV=PQ. Counts ALL token activity across the ecosystem: stablecoins, DeFi tokens and NFTs, not just native ETH. This captures Ethereum's total economic throughput as a global settlement layer. Velocity = 150 is derived from stablecoin turnover (~80x/year per McKinsey), adjusted upward for high-frequency DeFi swaps and downward for bot/MEV removal (70-93% per Visa research). Higher velocity than ETH Monetary reflects faster-moving token economy.

Appendix: Valuation Framework Categories

ETHval employs 12 valuation models organized into four methodological categories. Each category represents a distinct theoretical approach to estimating Ethereum's intrinsic value, ranging from traditional finance frameworks to crypto-native metrics.

Traditional finance methodologies adapted for crypto. These models treat ETH as a yield-generating asset comparable to bonds or dividend stocks, applying established frameworks like DCF, P/S ratios, and required return analysis. Best suited for institutional investors seeking familiar valuation anchors.

Staking DCF Forward-looking: Discounts future staking rewards to present value. Uses 9% discount rate and 3% perpetual growth.

P/S Ratio Revenue multiple: Applies 25x multiplier to annual fee revenue. Comparable to SaaS valuations (10-40x).

Fee Yield Backward-looking: Reverse-engineers market cap from current staking APR. Treats ETH as a yield-bearing bond.

Validator Economics Required return: Compares current APR vs. 6% target yield. Focus on validator profitability threshold.

Values ETH based on assets locked, settled, or secured on the network. These models treat Ethereum as a settlement layer that must provide economic security proportional to the capital it backs. Premise: Network security (market cap) should scale with on-chain asset value.

TVL Multiple DeFi-focused: Values ETH based on DeFi deposits only. Uses 7x multiple from historical MC/TVL ratios.

App Capital Broadest scope: All on-chain assets (stablecoins, ERC-20s, NFTs, RWAs). Uses 28% stablecoin ratio as proxy.

Models that capture value from user adoption, transaction activity, and ecosystem growth. Based on network economics theory that value grows non-linearly with adoption. Particularly relevant for Ethereum's rollup-centric roadmap where L2 activity accrues value to L1.

Metcalfe's Law User-driven: Network value ∝ n^1.5. Uses TVL as proxy. Academically validated for BTC/ETH.

ETH Monetary (MV=PQ) ETH as money: Applies MV=PQ to ETH transfers only. Velocity 6 reflects SoV characteristics.

Ecosystem Settlement (MV=PQ) Infrastructure value: Applies MV=PQ to all token transfers. Velocity 150 based on stablecoin turnover.

L2 Ecosystem Rollup-inclusive: Weights L2 TVL at 2x because L2 settles on L1, burning ETH via EIP-1559.

Supply-side models that price ETH based on reduced effective circulating supply. These models recognize that significant portions of ETH are structurally locked (staking, DeFi, lost coins), creating scarcity dynamics similar to stock buybacks or float reduction.

Staking Scarcity Simple ratio: Values ETH based on non-staked supply only. Higher staking % = higher fair value.

Liquidity Premium Amihud liquidity theory: Reduced tradeable float from staking, DeFi, L2, and lost ETH creates price premium via lower market liquidity.

⚠️ Disclaimer: These valuation models are for reference only. Each model has its own assumptions and limitations. Investment decisions should consider multiple factors comprehensively.

## Comments

**thatalexpalmer.eth**: This is very cool