# vitalik.eth: 33% chance SNARKs, FHE, and iO reach 1+ε overhead in the future

Source: https://farcaster.xyz/vitalik.eth/0x0421efa4
Kiwi News: https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/vitaliketh-33percent-chance-SNARKs-FHE-and-iO-reach-1e-overhead-in-the-future?index=0x6a9d6ddd52292472f61aab2cd35b18c4b713d078b4377e9c5c8c2949ed88d6c8c6959337
Submitted by misha on 2026-09-06 UTC, 2 upvotes, 0 comments

## Summary

Vitalik Buterin estimates a 33% chance that, for average real-world computation, SNARKs, FHE, and iO can each be implemented with 1+ε overhead, meaning the added cost of cryptographizing a computation becomes arbitrarily small relative to the base cost for large enough instances. He gives a 60% chance that all three can be done with single-digit overhead, below 10x measured in total energy cost plus amortized compute. He says a good chance exists of reaching one of these, probably SNARKs with single-digit overhead, by the end of this decade, pointing to existing results for specialized hash functions and some LLM inference.

## Article

One optimistic and still very-non-consensus belief I have about the far future of cryptography:

I think that there is a 33% chance that, for average real-world computation, there exist ways to implement all three of what I call the Egyptian God Protocols (SNARK, FHE, iO) with 1+ε factor overhead (meaning, for large enough instances, the added overhead of cryptographizing a computation becomes arbitrarily small compared to the base cost of doing the computation itself)

And a 60% chance that all three can be done with single-digit overhead (ie. <10x, measured in total cost of energy plus amortized compute)

I think there's a good chance we'll get one of these (probably SNARKs with single-digit overhead) by the end of this decade. After all, we're already there for specialized hash functions and for some LLM inference.