Gearing Down

The author announces they are slimming down their newsletter, dropping regular long-form "tent pole" articles in favor of roundups, life updates, links and new music, because writing it in its current form takes at least two days a week. They say this time has slowed progress on their novel, which has taken a year and a half, and on their art. Other sections cover reading Caroline Kepnes's "You," running, gaming with Factorio, and a critique of Polymarket's election forecasts as subject to survivor bias. The author also argues that real-money markets have structural problems and that prediction markets are best read alongside the news.