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Wow, this drop in Telegram wallet usage looks painful. I think infra providers can think about 1 billion users - because we need the products to scale. But the app developers should focus on the smaller userbase and find ways to retain them over a longer time - exactly the same way we do in web2. And that's because it's hard to predict what your user #1,000,000,000 would need when these numbers aren't even on the horizon. If you asked Mark Zuckerberg in 2004 what Facebook should look like in 2012, when they reached 1 billion people, his answers wouldn't be useful. And that's because in these 8 years, they did countless iteration cycles to get to that point and you just can't know these things before you start experimenting.
Yes, you're right. Retaining the smaller user base at first and then expanding would be a good strategy to follow. Also, focusing on a smaller user base provides room for targeted feedback, testing, and experimentation, enabling app developers to form a strong foundation that can support future growth.