[🌲] Iran to charge tanker transit tolls in Bitcoin, says Hosseini — FT

absolutely zero crypto company defi is going to be ANNIHILATED get out asap

maybe this is not yet clear, so let me state it plainly: as of right now Anthropic, and really a small number of individuals at Anthropic, has the capacity to directly attack and cause major damage to the United States Government, China, and generally global superpowers. government agencies like the NSA do not have internal models or defense capabilities that outclass frontier models. if they chose to do so, they could likely exfiltrate top secret information from government systems, gain control over critical infrastructure including military infrastructure, sabotage or modify communications between members of government at the highest level, and potentially carry on activities for some time without detection. the thing about having access to a huge number of zerodays your adversaries don't know about is it gives you a massive asymmetric advantage. they did not exploit this to gain power or destabilize the world order. they publicly released the information that they had these capabilities and worked to mitigate these flaws. you should be grateful american frontier labs have proven themselves remarkably trustworthy and concerned with the public good. but it's critical you understand we are in a new regime. private entities now have power that directly rivals and impacts the government's monopoly on influence and violence. and anthropic is certainly not the only one, there's little chance OpenAI's internal models are far behind. this trend will accelerate on virtually every dimension, not slow down. my prediction for how it plays out is the relatively imminent seizure and nationalization of labs by the US government, sometime over the next two years. it's very tough for me to see how they accept the existence of this kind of threat. but this adds a whole new class of governance issues, as then we've handed these extremely wide-reaching capabilities from private entities to public ones.

Every wallet shows you "asset changes" before you sign a transaction. Most of them call a centralized API to do it. We don't. Here's how @WalletChan_ simulates every transaction using nothing but raw RPC calls and a ghost contract that never exists onchain 🧵

$23.5B in prediction market notional traded in March 2026. In a single month. @Kalshi drove $13B. @Polymarket followed with $10.5B. And now @HyperliquidX’s HIP-4 could eclipse both, living up to its name: The House of All Finance. Here’s our comparative analysis. ⤵ — ➠ Kalshi - The Regulated Exchange Kalshi is what you get when prediction markets go through the U.S. regulatory process and come out the other side. ▸ You sign up, verify your identity (KYC required), deposit real USD, and trade yes/no contracts on events like elections, Fed rate decisions, or sports outcomes. ▸ Each contract pays $1 if the event happens, and $0 if it doesn’t. You buy at the current implied probability, then sell before expiry or hold to settlement. ▸ Kalshi resolves outcomes using predefined reference sources. Fast. Centralized. Reliable. ▸ Fees are straightforward: roughly $0.0175–$0.02 per contract near 50¢ probability, dropping toward zero at the extremes. ▸ The constraint is real: Kalshi can’t list markets on war, death, or anything the CFTC considers off-limits. Its market catalog is narrower by design. ▸ What it does well: $13B notional in March 2026. The largest regulated volume. Institutional trust. Fiat on-ramps. If compliance matters to you, there’s no alternative. — ➠ Polymarket - The Crypto-Native Market Polymarket runs on Polygon but plans to migrate to its own layer soon. Anyone with USDC (soon Polymarket USD) and a crypto wallet can trade, as long as they’re not in blocked countries. ▸ Connect a wallet and buy YES/NO shares on any listed market. Share price = implied probability (60¢ = 60% chance). ▸ No KYC for global users. No geographic restrictions outside limited U.S. access. ▸ Anyone can create a market. That’s the power, and also the risk. ▸ Settlement goes through UMA’s Optimistic Oracle, the Markets Team, and Chainlink Oracle: a proposer submits the resolution, there’s a dispute window, and if contested it goes to a community vote. It works most of the time, but can take hours to days when outcomes are genuinely ambiguous. ▸ The fee structure is more complex. Fees are parabolic: near-zero at extreme prices ($0.01/$0.99), but steep in the mid-range. ▸ At 50% probability, the round-trip cost hits 1.80% on Crypto markets and 1.50% on Sports. Geopolitics is the only zero-fee category. Finance markets have the highest maker rebate at 50%. ▸ What it does well: $10.5B in March 2026 volume. Broadest market variety on earth. Permissionless. Transparent on-chain trades. The go-to platform for global, crypto-native event trading. — ➠ HIP-4 - The Composable Primitive HIP-4 is Hyperliquid’s native outcome contract system, built directly into the same trading engine that handles $178B+ in monthly perpetual volume. As of April 2026, it’s still on testnet, but the architecture is worth understanding now. ▸ Contracts trade between 0 and 1. Price = implied probability. At expiry, they settle to 1 (event happens) or 0 (it doesn’t). ▸ You post 100% of your maximum possible loss upfront. No leverage. No margin calls. No liquidation risk, ever. ▸ Settlement is on-chain and deterministic, using curated reference data, resolving in ~0.2 seconds on HyperL1. No dispute window. Here is the part that changes the math on everything else: ▸ Every position you hold on Hyperliquid: spot, perpetuals, and now outcome contracts shares one unified margin account. ▸ The system automatically recognizes offsetting risk. If you hold a short ETH perp and a YES outcome contract on “ETH rallies above $X,” those positions reduce each other’s margin requirements automatically. ▸ Your outcome position isn’t dead capital. It functions as collateral across your broader portfolio. ▸ Every other prediction market silos your capital. Your $500 in Polymarket is invisible to the rest of your trades. On HIP-4, that same position stays alive and productive inside your full account. ▸ Fees follow Hyperliquid’s volume-tiered structure: very low at base (0.045% taker / 0.015% maker), compressing further for active traders. ▸ Fees apply only on close or settlement, not on open. Builders who deploy permissionless markets in Phase 2 earn up to 50% of the fee revenue generated. ▸ Phase 2 permissionless deployment requires staking 1,000,000 $HYPE tokens as a bond. That creates three simultaneous effects: a supply sink for HYPE, aligned builder incentives, and a filter against low-quality market creation, without central gatekeeping. — ➠ Bottom Line Kalshi wins for regulated, fiat, U.S.-friendly trading with strong liquidity in politics/sports. It is the most “institutional-grade” but constrained by rules. Polymarket dominates crypto-native volume and variety globally. It offers the most open market creation today but faces oracle delays and fee friction in high-uncertainty events. HIP-4 is the most innovative structurally. It turns prediction markets into a composable primitive inside the world’s largest perp DEX. The unified margin + no-liquidation design solves the biggest pain point of traditional prediction platforms (dead capital). Once on mainnet with permissionless markets, it could pull high-volume DeFi traders who already trade billions in perps on Hyperliquid.