ANALYSIS: Does the Circle IPO value Tether at $316B?

Protos argues that Circle's IPO pricing can serve as a benchmark for valuing Tether, but that the simple comparisons produce a figure that is unreliable. Circle's shares were expected to price at least $27-28 each, a valuation above $7.2 billion, with the final price set after the 5pm pricing. Applying Circle's 11.7% ratio of market cap to stablecoin market cap to Tether's $153.7 billion USDT would imply an $18 billion valuation. A profit-based comparison, which scales Circle's $156 million in 2024 net profit against Tether's roughly $7 billion in interest income, yields a $316 billion figure that the article presents as a caveated and doubtful result.