Are we there yet?

Real yields are argued to remain negative, which would mean the Fed keeps raising rates instead of cutting them. Using the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate of 5.7% real growth for the third quarter as of September 8, plus a 3.7% deflator gap, nominal growth is put at 9.4%, against a 2-year Treasury yield of 5%. The text ties this to falling capital gains tax receipts, noting that the Congressional Budget Office estimated realized gains at 8.7% of GDP in 2021.