Ethereum & wealth effect

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@sassal0x
@sassal0x

I think one of the biggest value drivers for layer 1 chains that is not talked about very often is the "wealth effect" that they can experience. In 2017, Ethereum had a huge wealth effect that was driven by ICOs which sent ETH from $10 to $1400 in ~12 months. You needed to buy ETH to participate in ICOs and then you'd trade the ICO tokens for more ETH and repeat this until the bear market hit. In 2020/2021, Ethereum experienced a similar wealth effect driven by DeFi summer and NFTs that sent ETH from $80 to $4900. You used ETH in DeFi protocols to farm tokens which you'd then sell for more ETH and you needed ETH to trade NFTs. In 2023/2024, Ethereum did not experience this same wealth effect as ETH bottomed at a $100 billion market cap ($880) and did not capture the new speculative meta (memecoins). Instead, the wealth effect happened on Solana as SOL bottomed at a $5 billion market cap and you needed SOL to trade memecoins. In saying this, the wealth effect phenomenon is not a long-term activity driver for chains - we've seen this with the many L1's that did relatively well in 2021 and then died off completely once the money/wealth effect ran out. To cross into a more sustainable activity paradigm, a chain must capture real and lasting value drivers that do not solely rely on speculation. I think this comes in the form of non-casino DeFi, real-world asset tokenization, TradFi integrations and various non-DeFi apps (social networks, onchain games etc). I believe that Ethereum is in the process of crossing into this world but it's not an easy task and there are, of course, a lot of other ecosystems competing for this as they are aware that the casino can only get you so far. Essentially, a bet on Ethereum and ETH at this point is a bet on Ethereum capturing the vast majority of long-term sustainable use-cases/value drivers that do not rely on a wealth effect. From everything that I've seen, I think Ethereum still has the best chance to win this, but we mustn't rest on our laurels - we must keep building and scaling.

xcancel.com

Ethereum and wealth effect

AI summary of the linked article

The author argues that Ethereum's value drivers have historically come from "wealth effects," but that a lasting chain needs non-speculative use cases, and that Ethereum is working toward them. The piece says ETH rose from $10 to $1,400 in about 12 months in 2017, driven by ICOs, and from $80 to $4,900 in 2020/2021, driven by DeFi summer and NFTs. In 2023/2024, it says the wealth effect went to Solana instead, where SOL bottomed at a $5 billion market cap while ETH bottomed at a $100 billion market cap ($880). It names non-casino DeFi, real-world asset tokenization, TradFi integrations and non-DeFi apps as sustainable drivers.

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