Fascination with Seeds Instead of Fruits

This essay argues that investors and individuals should focus on early-stage "seeds" showing winning trajectories rather than on current results, or fruits. It draws an analogy between seed growth and entrepreneurial success, citing that HBS suggests founders who succeeded in a previous venture have a 30% chance of succeeding in their next venture and that failed founders perform better than first-time entrepreneurs. The author also proposes prediction markets for picking future winners, while noting that reaching critical mass of participants remains difficult. The essay includes a simplified success-probability model, with a 1% baseline rate, that the author calls potentially oversimplified.