From prediction markets to info finance

The author argues that prediction markets are a useful tool today and are one example of a broader category called "info finance," which uses market design to elicit information for public benefit. As evidence, the post says Polymarket gave Trump a greater than 95% chance of victory in the US election as results came in, while other sources had predicted 50/50 before the vote. It also cites a Venezuela market in July where bettors priced a 23% chance that Maduro would be removed, a signal the author says prompted closer attention to protests that ultimately failed to unseat him. The post further proposes AI as a way to make low-volume "micro" markets viable.