Idea Futures

Robin Hanson proposes creating betting markets on controversial questions and treating current market odds as the best expert consensus, arguing that policy-makers and media rely too heavily on self-interested pundits who are rewarded for good stories rather than accuracy. The article describes the Foresight Exchange (originally called Idea Futures), begun by Sean Morgan, which won the 1995 Prix Ars Electronica Golden Nica and had over 1500 players betting play money on over 200 questions. It also cites real-money political markets, such as Iowa Electronic Markets and WahlStreet, as predicting election outcomes better than opinion polls, and notes that betting is generally illegal in the US and most of the world, which limits larger demonstrations.