If you like prediction markets you should learn about futarchy
AI summary of the linked articleFutarchy, a governance model proposed by economist Robin Hanson, would have citizens vote on desired outcomes while prediction markets decide which policies are most likely to achieve them. The article argues that this replaces popularity-driven policy choices with ones that compete on expected outcomes, since traders risk capital on their beliefs and wrong predictions are penalized. Its example compares lowering corporate tax rates with increasing public infrastructure spending, each judged by markets on whether it yields 4 percent GDP growth over three years. The article says crypto now makes testing this possible at scale, and points to small DAO experiments with prediction markets. |
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