Insider Trading and Polymarket

Polymarket prices are generally accurate, with the leading outcome correct 94% of the time four hours before resolution and 90% a month before, according to the article's analysis. The article attributes accuracy to four groups: arbitrageurs, insiders, superforecasters, and low-information traders, whose losses fund the others' profits. A live market giving Google a 72% chance of having the top Arena benchmark model is described as probably right, though the article says it is unclear how much of the pricing reflects insider knowledge or skilled forecasting.