No Trade Zone

The author, writing under the title "No Trade Zone," says Maelstrom's trading was quiet in the first quarter because of two developments: the spread of agentic AI, which they argue will destroy knowledge-worker careers and trigger a deflationary financial collapse, and a US-Israeli war against Iran that began about seven weeks before the piece was written. The author sets out three scenarios: a return to normal, an Iranian toll system in the Strait of Hormuz, and a US military campaign to reopen the strait. For the toll scenario, the author argues that nations would need yuan, leading them to sell dollar assets and buy gold, and that this would end the petrodollar's dominance.