One Year Into the War in Ukraine

The author reviews his predictions one year into Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and concludes that he was wrong to expect a Russian victory in the field. He says Russian forces failed to take Kyiv, Kharkiv and most other targets he had expected to fall, while his view that Russia would struggle to hold territory and that NATO would be strengthened has largely held up. He also credits Alex Vershinin's analysis of Russian logistics limits as an influence on his thinking, and notes that Russia's human toll has been severe.