Predicting Provenance

The author argues that prediction markets are zero-sum, which makes niche bets hard to place, and proposes NFTs as a positive-sum alternative in which artworks capture forward-facing provenance. In the illustrative example, an artist paints a 2025 alien-visit prediction over the Eiffel Tower, sells editions for $100, and the paintings could gain value if the prediction comes true. The piece also suggests standardized prediction NFTs could let people trade on predictions without finding a counterparty.