The Carlota Perez Framework (2015)

Fred Wilson's blog post uses Carlota Perez's research on technology revolutions to frame a possible crash in Bitcoin and blockchain. Perez found that every major technological revolution has an installation phase, when infrastructure is built, and a deployment phase, when society broadly adopts the technology, and that the turning point between them is almost always marked by a financial crash and recovery. The author declines to say whether Bitcoin is in its collapse phase, but expects a price decline is very likely, a sector health decline is also likely, and a broader capital markets decline is less likely. The post concludes that investing after the crash, done intelligently, has been richly rewarded.