The Death of DAOs

The article argues that today's DAOs, which it calls "Centralized Manual Disorganizations," combine the weaknesses of democracy and dictatorship: they make slow decisions, ignore the preferences of smaller members, and show little insight. It proposes that governance could instead be modeled on living organisms that maintain a world model, predict outcomes, and update when surprised, using a design it calls SMC, which combines conviction staking, prediction markets, and consensus mechanisms. The article notes that the proposal is not wholly new, that several prediction-market governance systems have been tried with varying success, and that the mechanisms remain unsolved technical problems.