The Startup Drake Equation

Startups fail by default because success requires many factors to go right at once, and the failure of any single factor is fatal. Adapting Frank Drake's 1961 equation for estimating alien civilizations, a Startup Drake Equation lists twelve such factors, from product demand and customer acquisition to funding, co-founder fit and luck. It recommends reducing risk by becoming extremely strong in a few areas, choosing easy, profitable markets such as dentist offices over indie hackers, and designing products to avoid one's weaknesses, such as offering 48-hour response times to a founder with a day job.