The Ugly

The essay argues that the author's outlook on crypto has turned bearish after a period of bullishness, and that a pullback in Bitcoin toward $70,000 to $75,000 is more likely than continued gains before a rise to $250,000 by year end. The author's reasoning rests on US Treasury market stress: a 10-year yield rising to between 5% and 6% could trigger a mini-financial crisis. The essay says relative value hedge funds are the marginal buyers of treasuries, and that bank balance sheet limits under Basel III and margin requirements could cut their buying. It suggests the Fed could suspend the supplemental leverage ratio and resume quantitative easing, though the essay argues the Fed's political will is the missing piece.