The $5.5B Bet on AGI Infrastructure

Leopold Aschenbrenner, a former OpenAI researcher who predicted AGI by 2027 in his 165-page essay Situational Awareness, now runs a hedge fund whose Q4 2025 portfolio is concentrated in power and physical infrastructure rather than chips. The article reports the fund reached $5.5 billion in gross equity exposure within 18 months and returned approximately +47% net of fees in H1 2025, against +6% for the S&P. Its top five positions make up 65.3% of exposure, led by Bloom Energy at 20.6%, and the fund exited Nvidia, Broadcom and TSMC hedges and longs during 2025.