The other side of the "ETH as value" discussion:

Bitcoiners are becoming goldbugs. People who think Bitcoin is some magic thing that is decentralized “just cause,” whose future success is preordained and an absolute certainty. This is a disastrous way for people to conceptualize Bitcoin. Bitcoin is a decentralized computer network.

See https://news.kiwistand.com/stories/Ethereum-Must-Choose:-Asset-or-Platform-Says-EY's-Paul-Brody?index=0x67dc911e073cbafc865a494874d063e98d241f3c934d0664c4de3c8ace3a1492201e446c

Very good essay, I have the same impression. Like the "There will never be more than 21M Bitcoins" meme that is being repeated at nauseam is just not true. There COULD be more Bitcoins, it's not set in stone and bound by laws of physics. And the higher their marketcap, the more need is there for having a strong security budget, which in turn might lead to emitting more Bitcoins. This is btw why I decided to not buy BTC - I thought most people understand it, but apparently they do not.

@macbudkowski.eth that's a crazy reason to not buy BTC, it would be incredibly difficult to actually increase emissions and have miners agree on it, not to mention undermine one of the core reasons that anyone owns BTC

increasing the total supply wouldn't benefit anyone, and there's no reason to

even wilder take if you're invested in other crypto where it's quite easy to increase total supply and it happens all the time

hey @0xef...

Yes, I invested in other crypto, and I'm fully aware everyone can increase the total supply. In ETH it's even been an important debate (see: https://ethresear.ch/t/faq-ethereum-issuance-reduction/19675).

But crypto I invest in don't build their whole value proposition around claims like "There will be only 120,657,000 ETH". For Bitcoin the claim that "There will only be 21M BTC" is the key driver of its value and price.

So do I think that they will change the supply today, tomorrow or in 2025? No. I don't think it's gonna happen anytime soon.

But to me, the fact that the security budget goes lower (via halving) and the market cap goes higher means that the incentive to attack the network is getting bigger. And if the nation states invest in BTC, then other nation states (like e.g., China or Russia), might use these attacks as a part of a modern hybrid warfare.

And since Bitcoin community is known for its reluctance to changes (see: https://blog.lopp.net/on-ossification/), they might not prepare for the evolving situation fast enough.

So the trajectory here is not positive IMO, and to me it didn't matter if problems are going to start in 2028, 2032 or 2040. But I was wrong - the market doesn't care about such time horizons, so I missed a great trade.