Yellen or Talkin'?

The author argues that the Fed's recent rate-cut and QT-taper talk is not backed by action, and that Bitcoin's weakness signals a coming mini financial crisis around the March 12 BTFP renewal decision that will force the Fed to act. The essay says Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's November 1, 2023 shift of borrowing into T-bills injected liquidity that will total close to $1 trillion, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell's rate-cut comments have not increased monetary stimulus. The author contends that Bitcoin, which fell from $48,000 to below $40,000 after the spot ETF launch, is anticipating that the BTFP will not be renewed, and predicts a local bottom between $30,000 and $35,000.