@vgr: Bitcoin as a pure dollar hedge and economic doomsday indicator

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We really need to normalize thinking of Bitcoin rising as the dollar falling. There’s no other narrative attached to Bitcoin at this point. It’s pure dollar hedge, and by extension a hedge against all fiat. The USD is down 10%. This is a bad sign for the state if the world. It’s a doomsday clock measure. There’s probably a way to model this that incorporates all major reserve or near-reserve currencies normalized by long-term bond yield rate or something. But bond yields are an internal metric. The last time the 30y yield was at this level was 2023 but the bitcoin ath is much higher than the ath around that last yield peak so doom is closer, The Ethereum narrative and valuation has diverged I think for similar reasons to why silver diverges from gold, but stronger. Silver has a few more uses than gold but Ethereum has way more uses than bitcoin. For the record I have a balanced btc/eth portfolio so this isn’t about my bag biases.

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Bitcoin as a pure dollar hedge and economic doomsday indicator

submitted bytim12,4791y
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Vitalik Buterin-style framing aside, this post by @vgr argues that Bitcoin's rise should be read as a pure hedge against the dollar and fiat currencies generally, not as a separate narrative. The post states that the USD is down 10% and calls this a bad sign for the state of the world, a "doomsday clock" measure. It adds that the 30-year bond yield was last at this level in 2023, but Bitcoin's all-time high is much higher than it was at that yield peak, so doom is closer. It also says Ethereum's valuation has diverged from Bitcoin's for reasons similar to silver diverging from gold, but more strongly. Wait, I must correct my draft: the post never mentions Vitalik Buterin, so that phrase should be removed.

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