Why prediction markets aren’t popular - Works in Progress (worksinprogress.co) | |
Prediction markets are a strange creature. I seem to be a perfect fit for a "prediction markets user." I bet on sports, play poker, and invest in crypto. I even bet with my friends about different outcomes, e.g., who would win the election, what price ETH would reach by a specific date, and so on. But... I still haven't used Polymarket. I was thinking about trying it out when there was the "Will Ethereum ETF get approved?" debate, but I felt like it didn't make that much sense—if the ETF gets approved, it's going to be reflected in my ETH-focused portfolio anyway. What I would be interested in are token-gated prediction markets. For me, betting is primarily a social activity. It's something I do with my friends to find out who's right and build some forecasting reputation. So if I could run a mini market with my friends, I think that would be an interesting use case (though probably not too profitable for Polymarket given small sizes of our bets). | |