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Daily discussion thread 2025-02-03
1d • timdaub.eth •

gm, max pain this morning. -20% across the Ethereum ecosystem while BTC and others have held up better. I had typed up a whole paragraph about how the EF was ill-prepped for the whole Trump thing. I deleted it because I thought it was more productive to focus on building Kiwi instead! Here's our plan for Kiwi News this week: - Improve the experience of using Kiwi abroad (far away from the origin) - Work on the iOS app to build a better wallet handling process - Continue to improve the commenting UX - Learn learn learn to become better cofounders
How much is the 20% due to liquidations where ETH was used as a collateral? I guess there are more risks with DeFi than the static BTC strategy of buy and hold... I think perhaps we can attribute the lack of ETH growth to some of the decisions of EF, but I'm unsure about the drop...
> How much is the 20% due to liquidations where ETH was used as a collateral? I guess there are more risks with DeFi than the static BTC strategy of buy and hold... That's probably fair. In fact, I can already see another level of FUD arriving to the Ethereum community because people scapegoat EF leadership for price decay. That said, I think it'll be hard to argue that ETH went down because of its use in DeFi. Would you be able to prove it to me right here with e.g. Dune Dashboards? That said, if it was indeed that Ethereum went down because of its use as a collateral, then compared to e.g. Solana and BTC it'd be quite underpriced this morning, no? So then it'd reach similar price levels compared to SOL and BTC soon again, right?
Could be a liquidations, both from DeFi and CEXs. As ETH hasn't performed well for a long time, I imagine some people think "Okay, this is the time!" and they bet on ETH with a 2-10X leverage. > "Learn learn learn to become better cofounders". Got one comment regarding this line. I have been chatting with a friend about what does actually "being a world class entrepreneur" mean. In my mental map, it was this Silicon Valley archetype of someone that's very smart, has extremely high agency, does 80h workweeks, and ofc runs a business that's super successful. What he pointed out to me is that we have friends who are very smart, have a high agency, and work a lot and still fail. And we can say that 'they got unlucky', 'the market was bad', and so on, but the truth is that most of them just don't learn, and keep on pushing harder the things that don't work. As the saying goes: "It's not 10,000 hours, it's 10,000 iterations". And I think this is the gist of "being a world class entrepreneur". Being a learning machine, someone who really wants to understand how stuff works - their users, the product, the market and so on. We have this friend - Luke - who now retires from the company he cofounded. It took 10 years to build and grow, and the first 5 years they've been spinning around in circles, and nothing they tried worked. But they kept on learning, and at some point they understood their market, users and products so well that they reached their small PMF and after a few years of growth they can now chill.
Oh where can I learn about the iOS app? To feed my bad habbit of cycling news app during some downtime :)
U can send me your Apple ID per DM e.g. on TG and I'll invite you to the TestFlight!
The only thing that is up today is the new Kiwi iOS app ;) 📈🥝 (And the dollar of course. Those happy European DAOs and crypto startups holding USD stables and paying out in Euro’s.)
Huge news, in Germany you can talk to ChatGPT via fax. https://simple-fax.de/fax-ki
> How much is the 20% due to liquidations where ETH was used as a collateral? Here's a Dune dashboard of Aave liquidations. $200M in one day: https://dune.com/KARTOD/AAVE-Liquidations
> Here's a Dune dashboard of Aave liquidations. $200M in one day: https://dune.com/KARTOD/AAVE-Liquidations So that'd invalidate Zink's claim that it's all just collateralized positions that got liquidated? Or do we have to look beyond just Aave? I mean we have remove 100B USD from ETH's market cap since January 31, so 200M USD in one day are nothing. That said, I don't think net sales and net decreases in market cap are one to one
> (And the dollar of course. Those happy European DAOs and crypto startups holding USD stables and paying out in Euro’s.) I actually Am wondering how tariffs, which are strengthening the USD (at least that's the consensus opinion at the moment) contribute to the USA reducing their trade deficit. At least in Germany, we have always profited from a weak national currency as this made our goods affordable internationally, which is why we always have a trade surplus. But Trump wants to both have a strong USD and at the same time he wants to industrialize the country. But who's going to be able to afford e.g. those Apple computers internationally when all this stuff is going to be outrageously expensive for those who don't hodl USD or get paid in it?
> So that'd invalidate Zink's claim that it's all just collateralized positions that got liquidated? Or do we have to look beyond just Aave? I think Aave liquidations show us a bigger trend. According to Coinglass there's been $2.3B liquidations on CEXs in last 24h. Linkrel: https://www.coinglass.com/LiquidationData > That said, I don't think net sales and net decreases in market cap are one to one So then the question is how $2.5B in liquidations (CEX + Aave) would translate into price action. We have people who got liquidated + limit orders selling ("Sell ETH when it gets below $3,000) + panic sellers ("Omg market is red I sell") + people who sell because of macro ("Trump starts a trade war") + probably some other groups. I think the theory is that these liquidation cascades trigger all other market participants to sell. And since market cap is just the price that people agree on and not the amount of money locked into an asset, this is why the markets can move so much down in one day.
Important reference on liquidations: https://x.com/benbybit/status/1886393172152156604
Apparently the liquidations have been much bigger. Bybit CEO says it was $2.1B on their platform alone: https://x.com/benbybit/status/1886393172152156604
Test, test. Writing this on the Kiwi iOS app 🙌🏼 after successful login with passkey.
Hello from TestFlight on an iPad where I be reading a little crypto news from time to time.