Turkey illusion

The Turkey illusion is a cognitive bias in which surprise follows a break in a trend whose causes or framework conditions are unknown. Bertrand Russell introduced the concept to illustrate a problem with inductive reasoning, and the article describes a variation in which a Thanksgiving turkey grows more confident each day it is fed, until it is slaughtered by the person who cared for it. The article says the turkey cannot recognize the trend break because it lacks the information about the feeder's motivations needed to do so.